Ukraine Update
Sumy
Small units of Russian infantry try to infiltrate.
Kupiansk
Russians continue to infiltrate in small groups for 7-10 km. Most are eliminated on the way. These made it to Kupiansk-Viziovyi.
A Russian tank shells a Ukrainian position by Holubivka. Russian positions in Petropavlivka are shelled. Russian positions inside Kupiansk are cleared with anti-tank mines.
Ukrainian Defenses
These are Ukraine’s defenses from Sloviansk to Huliaipole. The red indicates defenses created in 2026.
Sloviansk
In December, the commanders of the 10th Mountain and 54th Brigades were fired for lying about the status of their defenses. 30-year-old Colonel Vadym Cherniy took command of the 54th in January and 33-year-old Colonel Oleksii Chuzykov was just appointed commander of the 10th Mountain. Along with the 81st Airmobile brigade, Task Force Soledar was re-established to achieve stability. Some Russian units are exhausted and the 30th Brigade has conducted local counterattacks.
The 11th Corps will continue to lead the units on the flanks of the task force.
A Russian outside Lyman is attacked. A reporter was with the 117th Brigade when they were attacked by a drone. Russians outside Sviato-Pokrovske are attacked.
Kostiantynivka
Russian infantry are attacked in or around the city.
Russia attacked Kostiantynivka with phosphorus and then a 1500 kg bomb. There are still 2,000 civilians in the city and some of them were killed in this strike.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advance into Hryshyne and Ukrainian forces clear out infiltrators in Bilytske and Novyi Donbas. Ground drones were also used for a portion of the operations.
Huliaipole
Various attacks on Ukrainians, including BMPs that were in Berezove and Ternove. Ukraine clears positions northeast of Verbove. By clearing the gray zone of Russians, Ukraine will be able to establish defenses that are enhanced by the terrain.
Zaporizhzhia
Ukrainian units clear the area around Stepnohirsk and conducted on airstrike on the apartment block. Russian drones attack Ukrainian positions Stepnohirsk.
A Russian drone flies into the water. It is possible to spoof the satellite signals these drones receive and substitute a new signal. The new signal can provide false locations and even false altitudes. By manipulating the signals, the Ukrainians can fly the drone.
Occupied Territories
Russian air defense systems continue to be destroyed in Crimea. On one night, they destroyed a radar, launcher and other components of an S-400 system as well as a Pantsir.
Russian Railroads
Russian Railways (RZhD) is a state-owned monopoly that is the nation’s largest employer with 700,000 workers and it transports 87% of all of the nation’s goods. Reduced shipments of oil, construction materials, metals, and coal contributed to a 5.6% loss of cargo volume in 2026. Military cargos have priority over civilian cargos, which interrupts commerce, and money has been spent reorienting some of its assets from the reduced traffic with Europe to its increased traffic with China.
The loss of parts produced in the Western countries is also a factor. Western ball bearings did not require replacement for 800,000 km. The ball bearings from China need to be replaced after 80,000 km. Russian train engines use western parts and have to be cannibalized to repair other engines, much like in the aircraft industry. The mixing of non-standard parts threatens the integrity of heavy cars and increases the chances of failure by 300%. The lack of parts and reduced purchases of new locomotives are 93% of the reason why Russian transport capabilities are reduced. 145 cases of arson and sabotage had a small impact on operations.
The loss of revenue and money spent on its deteriorating equipment resulted in a current debt of $51.9 billion. This makes RZhD the third largest debtor in Russia. In October 2025, the energy companies of Gazprom had a debt of $76.2 billion and Rosneft had a debt of $45.8 billion. Back then, RZhD only had a debt of $35.2 billion. Interest rates of 17% also increase the burden. RZhD plans to reduce the rate of debt growth by slashing spending by 20% in 2026 even though this will create more problems in the future.
The company placed some staff on unpaid leave and other staff haven’t been paid in two months. RZhD is already short of 2,500 drivers and 3,000 crew members, which causes 200 trains to be canceled every day.
To reduce the debt, they are considering charging higher shipping rates, changing how they pay taxes, or using the National Wealth Fund, but that fund could be depleted in just over a year of oil prices remain at their current levels. They are also planning to issue an initial public offering this year despite being a state-owned monopoly. 70% of the Russian companies that went public in the last two years saw their share values drop by an average of 40%.
The plan to build the 2000 km Northern Siberia Railroad to western China was estimated to cost $644 billion, so it was canceled last December. They also plan to offer a 3 year, 7 month bond for $576 million that will be paid in yuan, not rubles, because the yuan is much more stable that the ruble.
Because of the economic instability of the company’s employees, 30,000 of the railroad’s security forces are being armed with heavy weapons to counter any potential demonstrations or protests. This aligns with the expansion of the Rosgvardia and arming them with tanks and artillery.
Russia
The Metafrax Chemical plant was damaged in September 2025, and a second attack last week hit a distillation column.
Russia’s only optical fiber manufacturing plant was attacked in April and May of 2025. It hasn’t been repaired so they’ve relied on Chinese supplies. The price of those supplies was $2.33/km in early 2025, then rose to $3.60 by the end of 2025 to $5.80 in January. Russia purchased 60 million km of fiber last year.
Kazakhstan had previously protested Ukraine’s attack on the oil export terminal at Novorossiysk because most of their oil is exported through that terminal. Now the US officially notified Ukraine the US investments in Kazakhstan are impacted by those same strikes. Chevron is a major shareholder in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which moves Kazakh oil to the Black Sea. Ukraine’s ambassador regrets that the US does not have the same economic interests in Ukraine. She did note that the US did not suggest that Ukraine should refrain from attacking Russian military and energy infrastructure, and Ukraine attacked the port of Novorossiysk. The port facilities, terminal and railway were hit multiple times.
Alexey Kostyleve is the founder of the propaganda outlet Readovka in 2014 that now has 2 million subscribers on Telegram. A month ago, he said he received money from the state. Now he’s been arrested for embezzling 1 billion rubles as part of his project to build a recreation center.
Russia is trying to recruit university students to fulfill their monthly needs. They are offering one-year contracts with bonuses. In reality, they would be forced to serve until the end of the war.
About a billion people use Telegram across the globe, and 100 million of them are in Russia. Pavel Durov is the founder of the app and has been charged in France with the distribution of child sexual-abuse material, drug trafficking and fraud. He is currently living in the United Arab Emirates. Russia is investigating him for failing to prevent terrorists and criminals from using it, and it says Telegram is the main tool that Ukraine and the West uses against the Russian military in Ukraine. There is a lot of pushback among the Russians. A drone unit commander said the app helped him to destroy “hundreds” of Ukrainian military vehicles and equipment and that Russia doesn’t have a secure alternative. Russia is trying to move people to MAX, a state-controlled app, but users say Telegram has better encryption and the Russian military has been told not to use it.
A Russian blogger said that “unmatched ‘canonical program’” would “very soon” be delivered to the forces for frontline communications. Roskomnadzor, Russia’s state communications watchdog, said they would continue to introduce restrictions to Telegram. Russia’s Digital Development Ministry said they would not block Telegram for troops in the war zone for now but warned that “foreign intelligence agencies have access to the messenger’s correspondence and are using this data against the Russian military.” They also said that Ukraine can quickly access information shared on Telegram and use it for targeting Russian troops.
“I Want To Live”
On 19 September 2022, Ukraine established the “I Want To Live” project that provided Russian soldiers in Ukraine a way to surrender. Two days later, Putin mobilized 300,000 reservists and the hotline received 2,000 calls within two weeks. Within six months the websites was visited 13.3 million times, 7.6 million of those visits came from Russian territory.
In the early months of the program, large groups would occasionally surrender. In the past, Ukrainian troops have been sent to extract the Russians, and a driver or the crew of a tank might bring their vehicle with them and be paid for the equipment. A helicopter pilot, Maxim Kuzminov, defected with his Mi-8 helicopter and received a $500,000 prize.
When Russia forces notice their troops have surrendered, the prisoners become a high priority target for artillery, drones or even anti-tank missiles back when they were more common.
Many other Russians have indicated they wanted to surrender by using signs or hand signals. The local drone units then coordinate with the infantry and provide the Russians with instructions on how to proceed.
Once they are a prisoner, they have the option to take part in a prisoner exchange in which their records would show that they were captured and did not surrender. They can also temporarily remain in detention with the possibility of staying in Ukraine or emigrating later. Kuzminov was advised to stay in Ukraine for his own safety but he decided to emigrate to Spain with a new identity and live with other Ukrainian and Russian nationals. Four months later he was assassinated.
The hotline is manned 24 hours a day by 10 active-duty members, both male and female, with backgrounds in psychology. All speak fluent colloquial Russian. They used to operate in a headquarters but were soon moved to a secret location. Their identities a closely guarded because they are a high priority target.
So far, more than 10,000 Russians have surrendered through the program. More Russians surrendered in 2025 than in 2022 and 2023 combined. 60-90 soldiers are captured each week, on average, with the peak week recording 350 Russians during August 2024. Foreigners from more than 40 countries represent 7% of all Russian prisoners. The heaviest concentration of surrenders have been were the fighting was heaviest: Bakhmut, Pokrovsk, Kursk and the Polohivskyi district of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
The highest rank that surrendered was a colonel, but 96% are sergeant or below. 76% were contract soldiers such as those recruited from prisons or the various PMC groups. 19% of the prisoners were mobilized. 25% said they were forced to fight.
40% of the prisoners had a criminal record. 7% had higher education but many did not finish school. More than a third were unemployed before the war.
Russia exchanged more than 6,000 Ukrainian prisoners for their own, with more than half of them returning in 2025. Russia gives preference to ethnic Russians and residents of the central regions when selecting those to be returned. The wounded, sick, and those imprisoned more than a year are also ignored. Most returned prisoners are sent back to the front and 237 are known to be killed or missing. Four Russians were captured a second time.
The program continues to be an outstanding success to remove enemy combatants, however reluctant, from the battlefield and secure the release of thousands of Ukrainians. It has also provided intelligence from communications that ultimately do not lead to the surrender of a Russian soldier.
Ukraine
For the first time, a Russian fiber optic drone reached the outskirts of Khariv. It can only , possibly, be detected with radars or acoustic sensors. The first drone reportedly hit a tree. This one hunted cars on the M-20/M-03 interchange north of the city, which is about 21 km from the front lines. A Ukrainian administrator said it would be impossible to cover the entire city with anti-drone nets, as has been done to much of Kherson.
Six of the younger generation of leaders were promoted brigadier or major generals. They had been operating in senior positions at one or two levels of rank below what was appropriate for those positions. Colonels or lieutenant colonels are the ranks of brigade commanders.
-Denys Prokopenko joined Azov in 2014 as a rifleman and is now the 1st Corps commander at 34. He was promoted to brigadier general.
-Oleh Apostol spent his career with the airborne, commanded the elite 95th Air Assault Brigade, and is now the Air Assault Forces commander at 38. He was promoted to major general.
-Pavlo Palisa commanded the 93rd Brigade when they killed 25,000 from the Wagner group. At the age of 41, he is now Deputy Head of the Office of the President and Zelensky’s personal representative to the planning and army reform efforts. He is a graduate of what is now Ukraine’s Ground Forces Academy and Ukraine’s Command and Staff Institute, and was attending the US Army Command and General Staff College in 2022 before hurrying home to take command of the 5th Assault Regiment. This formal military education is very useful to understanding and operating the infrastructure needed to support the front line units. He is now a brigadier general.
-Yaroslav Sydorov was a tank company commander that participated in a 470 km raid behind Russian lines that liberated Sloviansk in 2014. At 40, he was just appointed to command the 17th Corps southeast of Zaporizhzhia and is now a brigadier general.
-Ruslan Shevchuk commanded the 93rd Brigade that was ambushing Russian columns in the spring of 2022. At 40, he commands the 15th Corps in western Ukraine as a brigadier general.
-Oleksandr Pyvnenko commanded the 3rd Operational Brigade of the National Guard that destroyed Russian columns near Kharkiv. He took command of the National Guard in July 2023 and was promoted to brigadier general three months ago. He is now a major general.
Five other promotions to general were awarded to soldiers in the security services and border guards.
As an aside, Robert “Magyar” Brovdi (50) is commander of all the drone forces with the rank of major, the same rank he had as a brigade, regimental and battalion commander. This is likely an artifact of his own personality and desires. Four years ago he was a businessman and joined the military as an infantryman. The current commander of the 414th Brigade that Brovdi founded is a junior lieutenant, which is a reflection of the culture of that unit. The other drone brigades and regiments are commanded by majors and lieutenant colonels. The 59th Assault Brigade is commanded by Colonel Saks and was placed under the command of the Unmanned Systems Forces led by Major Brovdi.
Zelensky said that Ukraine is short of Flamingo missiles because a production line was hit and it had to be relocated and repaired. The production rate will be impacted by funding and availability of components. The goal is 200 missiles a month. Here is the moment of impact when a Flamingo hit a Russian missile workshop in Votinsk.
Because of a shortage of drivers and a need to increase efficiency, Ukraine is starting to transport semi-trailers on rail to and from the rest of Europe. To load and unload the semi-trailers, and to switch them between rail cars of Ukraine’s wider tracks and Europe’s narrower tracks, a modular lift platform system is used.
Cameras about the ISS captured an attack on Kyiv in December 2025.
Diplomacy
Eight months ago, Trump disagreed with his own intelligence community and said Iran’s nuclear facilities were obliterated. After attacks in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia and Nigeria, after the abduction of Venezuela’s dictator and the energy blockade on Cuba, Trump plans to re-obliterate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, destroy Iran’s missiles and navy and topple the regime. These goals indicate that US military activity will last weeks to months instead of its one day of attack on Iran last summer.
About 4% of the world’s oil exports come from Iran, and 20-25% of the natural gas and oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices were already increasing to their highest prices since the last attack on Iran just out of a concern for a subsequent attack. They will continue to rise. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries had increased production and will continue to do so. Russia won’t be offered the same prices for its oil but any rise in oil prices will help them fund the war. These attacks on Iran have significantly helped Russia. There will also be fewer missiles available to sell to Ukraine. Three are used to engage an Iranian missile attacking a US base in Qatar.
Rubio says Trump is pressuring Russia by selling weapons to Kyiv and putting sanctions on Russia. He adds that Trump is the only one that could get Russia and Ukraine to sit down and talk to each other but doesn’t mention that extreme pressure was placed on Ukraine and he has repeatedly tried to force Ukraine to accept Russia’s terms. Zelensky does not believe that Trump is putting enough pressure on Russia.
The US prevented several oil tankers from reaching Cuba and only one shipment has been delivered in 2026. 80% of Cuba’s electricity is generated by oil plants. Blackouts now last 20 hours a day. Trash isn’t being picked up, schools are canceled, and water pumping stations are interrupted. Secretary of State Rubio has been talking with the grandson of former leader Raul Castro about a transition in government. The oil tanker Sea Horse is scheduled to reach Cuba in early March with Russian oil and Moscow said it will support is ally.
Fance and Belgium cooperated with the seizure of the shadow tanker Ethera. Belgium special forces boarded the ship and are taking it to Zeebrugge. A month ago, France seized a tanker in the Mediterranean and released it after it paid a “several million euro fine” for registration violations.
The French aircraft carrier, Charles de Gaulle, was visiting Malmo, Sweden. The Swedes observed a Russian signals intelligence vessel launch a drone and violate Swedish airspace while sailing in Swedish waters, so they disabled the drone and escorted the Russian vessel from their waters. Russia denied the event.
Some of Russia’s dwindling Black Sea ships cannot function because of sabotage by their crew. The USS Gerald R. Ford is an aircraft carrier that is been at sea since June 2025. Originally sent on a Mediterranean cruise, it was sent to the Caribbean for operations against Venezuela and is now on its way to Iran. Funerals have been missed. Families have been missed. The 4,600 sailors are exhausted and uncertain when they will ever see home. Now, their vacuum powered sewage system is failing, because when one toilet malfunctions, entire sections of the system can malfunction. There was 205 issues in four days. And in the pipes, the repair crews found T-shirts, four-foot sections of rope and other items in the pipes, which can malfunction on their own without any help needed…
China has been recruiting Western pilots to train their military on how to defeat Western air forces. The US arrested a 65-year old man that retired from the air force in 1996. During his 24-year career, he flew combat missions, commanded units responsible for nuclear delivery systems and trained US pilots. After he retired he few commercial cargo planes and worked for defense contractors to train US pilots on A-10 and F-35 flight simulators. He was recruited by a Chinese businessman that pleaded guilty in 2016 for helping hack defense contractor computer systems and stealing military data for China. The recruiter served for years for that offense.
“”I suspect Trump thought that if there were no further supplemental package, Ukraine would find itself in difficulty much faster, and the war might therefore be brought to an end because Ukraine would be forced into concessions. I think they will eventually find that, with European support, Ukraine is not falling, and that the war cannot be ended without Ukrainian agreement and without European agreement as well, because, to use a Trumpian term, US cards are not as strong as they were.”
“My bet is that this war will end not like the Second World War but like the First World War namely when Putin runs out of resources. He’s already spent his national reserve fund. His last big pile of resources is the gold reserve. He started with 2,200 tons. I hear it’s down to 1,700. So this is the thing to watch, because this is how he’s funding his war.”-Radoslaw Sikorski, Deputy Prime Minister of Poland.
Georgia
Over 90% of Georgian NGOs receive funding from abroad in order to support democratic functions, such as monitoring elections, investigating corruption, providing legal aid, running shelters and supporting investigative journalism. In 2024, the government required organizations that receive more than 20% of their many from overseas to register as a foreign agent, mimicing a Russian law. 26,000 NGOs refused to register. The government is now pushing through the “Grants Law” that criminalizes any Western funding with up to 12 years in prison. It also outlaws one Georgian from providing money to another Georgian to fund any activity that might exert influence on the government. China still funds a program extolling the virtues of their country on the pro-Russian outlet “Obiektivi”.
The wording is vague enough that it is unclear if foreign payment for goods and services would still be allowed. Such payments were 11.9% of Georgia’s GDP in 2024. Some MPs have verbally said they would be allowed.
Opposition politicians from different parties have been jailed. The Georgian Dream political party is considering legislation to criminalize the refusal to recognize the legitimacy of the Georgian Dream party. Advocating for sanctions against Russia could be punished with up to 15 years in prison. This, while Russia still occupies 20% of Georgia after invading in 2008. Several political parties have been banned. If other parties reach the 5% threshold to hold a seat, they will be banned. With an expected constitutional majority in the next election, the Georgian Dream plans to eliminate EU and NATO membership from the constitution.
Most people believe that Ukraine’s fight is Georgia’s fight. They’ve been protesting for 450 days, but if you protest more than once then you could spend up to a year in prison.
Ilia State University is known for its anti-government stance and has to reduce its admissions by 92%. Other universities were shut down. Bachelor’s programs were reduced from four years to three. Masters programs were reduced from two years to one.
With the exception of Hungary and Slovakia, the EU voted to suspend visa-free travel for Georgian diplomats starting in March. The UK imposed sanctions on two Georgian propaganda outlets for spreading disinformation about Ukraine and aiding Russia in its informational war. Unlike Serbia and Azerbaijan, the regime has been unable to build a relationship with Trump.
The Georgian Dream still clings to the appearance of democracy to avoid further international sanctions and isolation and it is escalating the repression of any opposition out of fear they may overwhelm the security apparatus. The space for organizing that opposition is disappearing.
Equipment
Russia sold to Iran 500 of the 9K333 Verba (SA-25) MANPAD launchers and 2,500 9M336 missiles which will be delivered over three years. Ukraine captured a few models a year ago. Reports say that the missile tracks infrared sources with multiple sensors making it less susceptable to lasers blinding the missile and had a better chance of being able to differentiate between the target and decoy flares. The missile can also be integrated in short-range air defense systems.
Fire Point created a ballistic missile based on the S-400 air defense missile and called it the FP-7. Ballistic missiles are difficult to shoot down based on their mass and speed. It has a 200 km range, a 150 kg warhead and an average speed of 800 meters per second. Fire Point is working on the FP-9 missile with a range of 855 km.
Thanks Don. If I am not mistaken Fire Point was touting that it would test in February a ballistic missile that can reach Moscow…
Hope Tom is well
Thank you for these! Saving tons of time following the interesting details.