Ukraine Update
December 30th, 2024
The war doesn’t stop for the holidays but I hope everyone finds the peace that they deserve.
Kursk
The Russians are using fewer vehicles but their infantry are looking for holes in the Ukrainian defenses. Russian casualties remain high, but their infantry fills in any cracks with their numbers and Ukraine’s perimeter continues to be slowly squeezed.
West of Novoivanovka, a battalion from the 116th Brigade use their drones to stop another assault. Russians take cover under a disabled vehicle. Ukrainian drone operators try to drop bombs as close to the vehicles as possible without actually hitting the vehicle. To the east, Ukraine another Russian attack towards Malaya Loknya cost them 8 armored vehicles but for now they’ve secured the woods to the east of Novoivanovka and are moving towards Leonidovo. A Ukrainian tank defending Malaya Loknya was destroyed after four drone attacks.
The 47th Brigade uses a variety of weapons to stop a Russian assault.
Drone units try to keep at least one drone up at all times. A new drone arrives before the drone low on power leaves. In this way they can constantly seek new targets, whether they are attacking or defending. In this case, they follow a Russian soldier wounded in an attack back to a defensive position. Once revealed, it is attacked.
A Ukrainian vehicle is attacked by a drone in Russkoe Porechnoe. The crew dismounted and ran into an adjacent building that was attacked by more drones.
A Ukrainian SUV is lost in Lebedevka. 700 meters away, Ukraine lost a self-propelled howitzer to drone attacks.
The headquarters of the 810th Marines has reportedly been struck in Lgov. It is reported that the brigade will be sent to Plokhovo for rest.
Many North Koreans still don’t understand the threat of drones.
The North Korean wounded are being treated in a hospital probably located in Kursk. There was a report of Russian nurses treating them with contempt. This is a video from a Russian soldier.
Training is an issue in the North Korean army. One defector served in the special forces and learned to throw knives but only fired three bullets in over ten years of service. Much of the North Korean army spend their time farming, building or chopping wood. The soldiers sent belong to the Storm Corps, who can demonstrate a certain level of combat capability. They tend to be a little taller and athletic, and their mission was to infiltrate enemy lines and create chaos in the rear. One defector said that many would be eager to fight and he would have felt the same way. What they lack in expertise is somewhat compensated by their loyalty, so they are less likely to defect and surrendering is considered shameful. Two North Koreans decided to defect after reading propaganda sent by South Korea, but they say that is less likely to work so far from home. Plus, it takes a long time to build the desire and courage to defect.
Kharkiv
Ukraine used aerial and ground drones to conduct surveillance, mine clearing and remotely-controlled machine gun operations in the Lyptsi area.
A ground-level tour of northern Vovchansk. There are some areas with even fewer structures standing. On the eastern edge of the wasteland, a Russian throws an AT mine into a Ukrainian position. On the western edge, there’s a series of drone attacks on Russian infantry. 1500 meters south of the aggregate plant, a Ukrainian position is detected and attacked with a drone.
A Ukrainian drone is rammed. 5 km to the north of the city, a Russian loaf is destroyed. To the west of the city, and 2 km into Russia, the 42nd Brigade attacks Russian vehicles.
The Russians assaulted the aggregate plant.
Kupiansk
There were no reports on Dvorichna but another bridge over the Oskil river was destroyed by Russia near Kupiansk Vuzlovyi.
Russians attacking in the southern end of Zahryzove are hit hard. Later, Russian forces were hit in central Kruhliakivka.
After being surrounded on three sides for two weeks, Lozova fell to Russia. There are about 15 homes in the village so that’s worthy of a flag.
One of the (regimental-sized) battalions of the 3rd Assault Brigade conducted a small combined-arms clearing operation at Novoiehorivka and left under artillery fire with prisoners.
Siversk
A Ukrainian position in Bilohorivka is hit by artillery. A Russian attack in front of the giant slagheap was stopped with vehicles destroyed. The 119th Brigade stopped several attacks north of Verkhnokamianske. And the 10th Mountain stopped attacks headed towards Vyimka. Russia was unable to gain any territory.
About 30 rockets from a BM-21 land in an area 1000 meters by 500 meters inside Siversk.
Bakhmut
A Russian position on the edge of the woods in central Chasiv Yar is hit. There are no reports that territory changed hands.
The 5th Assault Brigade and 93rd Mechanized Brigade use artillery, ATGMs and drones to engage 15 tanks and 3 infantry platoons near Klishchiivka.
Toretsk
The Omega special forces unit continues the demolition of buildings in Torestsk held by Russians. Russia grabbed a 1400 x 600 meter section of land in northern Toretsk.
A Russian golf cart is attacked by drones during an assault from Niu York. The attack was conducted by a drone unit from the 12th Azov Brigade but there haven’t been any reports from the ground units in the sector for a few weeks.
Not graphic in the sense of blood and gore, but infantry are being shot and killed. Specifically, infantry and drones of the 28th Mechanized Brigade killed attacking Russians who attacked as streaming individuals without any unit cohesion. One Egyptian was captured.
The 28th Brigade is now shooting down Russian reconnaissance drones, this this case, six of them. For almost two years the brigade defended positions along the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal north of Toretsk, eliminating every assault over the canal. Their defensive positions are strong and they conduct an active defense, constantly seeking out targets.
“Kurt” is a soldier in the brigade that started out as a sniper. He then received permission to for a sniper unit and that changed into an assault unit that goes by the name “Kurt and Company”. This month they say they killed 51 Russians and wounded 57. Here is a video of his unit in action in October 2023, where the sniper said drones are the future. When looking at the video, notice how well the defensive positions are built and how clean they are. That is an indicator of a disciplined unit.
In this interview, “Kurt” talks about the shortcomings of training in the Ukrainian army, the Soviet influences that hinder the army and how the leader of a unit determines whether the unit will be successful or not. He also talks about a common event in the Ukrainian army, the unit rotation. If poorly executed, it can lead to disaster, as it has on repeated occasions. If you look at the US army’s checklist for Relief In Place (unit rotation) and compare it to what he says, you’ll find they have a lot in common.
Pokrovsk
Since October 2023, Russia has lost 2142 pieces of equipment in the Pokrovsk area (including 38 this week), and Ukraine lost 505, 36 this week.
Drone attacks on Russians in Lysivka and Dachenske. A fiber optic cable canister suggests that a Ukrainian drone team caught a Russian drone team on the road. The offices of the Novogrodivka mine were hit by a Ukrainian airstrike.
A report that 9 officers of the 24th Motor Rifle Regiment were killed by a missile strike near Novotroitske. Several troops of the unit didn’t think well of the commander.
A Bradley is destroyed in Vovkove.
Intimate combat, and another body ten meters away.
A two-minute walk through Pokrovsk. It’s not flat yet. A rocket hits the southern edge of the city. Unlike the Russian drone operators in Kherson, this particular drone operator waits at least 15 seconds for a civilian to walk away before attacking a truck.
One advantage of capturing Selydove intact last October is that the Russian troops can now loot the homes.
Kurakhove
The 79th Brigade continues to eliminate Russian men and equipment.
A drone hits a Ukrainian APC.
Velyka Novosilka
At least one battalion of the 110th Mechanized Brigade was sent to this sector. Their drones and artillery destroy a couple Russian vehicles moving into Novy Komar north of Velyka Novosilka. They also attacked the Russian column moving towards Vremivka to the south of Velyka Novosilka. Inside the town, Russian drones attacked sensors.
Artillery, FPVs and mines from the 110th Mechanized Brigade destroys a four-vehicle attack 1500 meters east of Novy Komar.
Russia plants the flag in the rubble that is Makarivka and Storozheve.
The 110th Territorial Defense Brigade (not the 110th Mechanized Brigade) destroyed three vehicles 5 km behind enemy lines south of Rivnopil.
A Tor air defense system was destroyed by a drone near Zelenopil, south of Velyka Novosilka and 25 km from the front lines.
Zaporizhzhia
Besides the build up in recent weeks, Russia is conductin aerial and engineering reconnaissance near Orikhiv and Huliaipole. The assaults and shelling are increasing.
The 65th Brigade flew their flag over the rubble of Robotyne.
Mines are important defensive tools.
Kherson
The Russians are conducting 5-7 assaults across the Dnieper a day. Kozatskyi Island was also assaulted but all the attackers were destroyed.
A cruise missile and a Shahed drone is shot down in the Kherson region by the 208th Kherson Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade. The brigade shot down ten other targets, as well.
Russia used four bombs on this airstrike.
An incendiary bomb is dropped on Russian equipment.
Crimea
In 2014, Russia seized a tugboat. Still legally owned by Ukraine, it was damaged by a Ukrainian drone.
The Russians anchored barges in a line in front of the Kerch bridge to prevent naval drones from penetrating. The storm at the end of November sank or swept away some of them. The barges may be a temporary solution as it appears that a permanent solution is being built.
Occupied Territories
A car blew up in Berdyansk, injuring the head of the occupation council.
Unknown location
Russian units are complaining that they are being contacted by people that present themselves as volunteers. These volunteers arrange a time and place to meet and provide the unit with humanitarian aid equipment. Then they are hit with HIMARS/MLRS rockets. A report says that after the evacuation team arrived they were attacked by drones.
A golf cart unloads infantry after it runs over an anti-personnel mine. Then it runs over an anti-tank mine designed to immobilize armored vehicles.
A ground drone recovers a downed aerial drone.
A Ukrainian sniper engaging a target 2,069 meters away.
Russian drones engage Ukrainian drones by ramming. Here’s 5 minutes of them ramming Ukrainian Vampire drones. A Ukrainian drone eliminates a Russian drone with a pair of shotguns that seem to work quite well.
A Leopard-1 fights the mud. Civilian logistical vehicles have even less of a chance to defeat the mud. A crew unloads the trailer behind their ATV.
Russia
Russia’s official numbers show that inflation is 9.7%, food inflation 11.4%, fruit and vegetable inflation is 25.74%. Individual items with high prices are potatoes (90%), onions (46%), cabbage (42%), beets (32%) and cucumbers (22%). A report of 740 rubles for a kilogram of cucumbers.
The Central Bank did not raise interest rates, but they will lift that cap restrictions on consumer loans that Russian banks can charge their customers. This means the commercial banks can raise interest rates and the loans for customers will be more expensive.
The mayor of Moscow said they repurposed a hospital built for Covid patients to handle the needs of the 600,000 wounded from the special operations, providing anything from artificial limbs to psychological treatment.
The Russian cargo ship Sparta briefly broke down before the main fuel pipe to the engine was repaired. The ship was removing military equipment from Syria. The new government in Syria is asking Russia to leave by February 20th in hopes of lifting international sanctions.
Two electric cables between Finland and Estonia were damaged and the most likely cause was the Eagle S, listed as a United Arab Emirates-owned ship. It will take several months to repair them. Later reports said that four internet lines were also broken or damaged. Flagged in the Cook Islands and having departed from St. Petersburg, it had all the characteristics of Russia’s shadow fleet that transports oil to evade sanctions. In addition to earning money for the war effort, it was part of Russia’s hybrid war against the West. A Finnish coast guard crew seized the cargo and the ship was moved to Porvoo for an investigation on the evasion of sanctions and the destruction of the cables.
While inspecting the ship, they found high-tech equipment used to monitor NATO naval ships and aircraft operated by an individual that was not a sailor. The keyboards had Russian and Turkish lettering and the report says that Russians, Turks and Indians were operating the equipment. Captains that questioned the situation were replaced and the crew was threatened. Similar equipment is supposedly on another ship owned by the same company, the Swiftsea Rider.
In October 2023, the NewNew Polar Bear, a Chinese ship, damaged a gas pipeline and telecommunications cable between Finland and Estonia. Despite requests, the ship did not stop. The Chinese eventually admitted the ship was responsible but said it was an accident. In September 2024, Putin said that lifting long range weapon restrictions would mean that Russia would be at war with NATO countries. On November 17, the US lifted restrictions. The same day, a telecommunications cable between Sweden and Lithuania was cut. The next day, a telecommunications cable between Finland and Germany was cut in Swedish waters. The Yi Peng 3, a Chinese bulk carrier with a reported Russian captain, was in the location of the damage and had a damaged anchor, sat in Danish waters for a month and allowed investigators on board but would not allow Swedish prosecutors on board or return to Swedish waters. There is evidence it acted under instructions from Russian intelligence and has since sailed away. And then there is the destruction of four cables but the shadow fleet ship Eagle S. There are various interpretations of international sea law but the NATO Secretary General said they will enhance their military presence in the Baltic Sea.
An Azerbaijani commercial jet was approaching Grozny when an air raid alert was initiated because of Ukrainian drones, at least one of which was shot down by a Pantsir-S1 air defense system. The first drone was engaged at 8:30. The commercial jet was denied permission to land at Grozny several times and decided to divert to Baku. Soon after, they lost their GPS, maybe as a function of jamming because of the drone attacks. At 8:16 they report a loss of control to what they think is a bird strike and they request directions to the closest airport. At 8:20 they start to lose control of their plane. At 8:23 they report the loss of hydraulics. The jet crashed at 8:28. There was evidence of damage throughout the plane before the plane crashed. 32 of 67 on board survived. Putin apologized for the crash and an investigation was opened to determine the cause.
As reported previously, the largest refinery in southern Russia was shut down for the third time this year after its main processing unit was hit by drones. The previous attacks in March and June reduced its capacity from 2.7 million tons in January to October, compared to 4.8 million tons for 2023. Drone attacks and repair issues due to sanctions reduced refinery output by 13% in 2024.
A drone storage and repair facility in Oryol was hit by Storm Shadows.
65 drone fuselages and components for 400 Shahed drones were destroyed in a drone attack in the Alabuga special economic zone in Tartarstan. The factory produced 2,738 drones in 2023. After increasing the size of the factory by 55%, they produced 5,760 from January-September 2024 . Cheaper decoy drones account for a lot of the increase. If 150 drones are launched in an attack, 20 to 30 might have warheads. Part of the workforce is Russian students as young as 15 and African immigrants who work long hours and face tough punishments as they assemble parts imported from China.
An ammo depot at a training ground in Rostov was hit.
Freight cars at a rail station near Moscow blew up.
A political office in Arkhangelsk and a gas station was firebombed. A pensioner set off fireworks in a bank, and another was set on fire and one arsonist wasn’t quite sure how fuel and fumes worked. An arrest after an attempt of arson at a bank and an ATM. A report of 10 arsons/pyrotechnic explosions at banks in 24 hours. According to the FSB, Ukraine revived an operation in which scammers pose as bank employees or law enforcement and convince victims to transfer money. The victims are then told that if the conduct arson attacks they can recover their money. From December 13-22, 34 attacks were committed, targeting banks, police cars, post offices and government service offices. There are more videos of such arson than the 34 attacks posted so it’s possible that some of these events had nothing to do with the scam.
Kotelny Island is 200 km north of the Siberian land mass and is home to the Temp (Pace) airbase. Here is a video of a military parade on May 9, 2015. With the war in Ukraine still fresh, the last vehicle has graffiti that says, “Alaska, ask Crimea how to return home!” In May, the average daily temperature is -8 C (16 F). Here was this year’s May 9th parade when life was still good. There is a report that their helicopters cannot fly, food isn’t being delivered, and the dead are not being removed from the island. Their public complaint caused them to be noticed, and they will now be sent to Ukraine as soon as transportation can be arranged.
Ukraine
On Christmas eve in Kryvyi Rih one person was killed and 11 wounded after a four-story apartment complex was hit and the street was showered with debris.
Now that Russia gas will no longer be flowing the Ukrainian pipelines, their 38,600 km network of pipes, storage facilities and power sources are at risk for Russian attacks.
A series of time-lapse maps of territorial control based on the DeepState maps.
Christmas in Kharkiv. There were 11 explosions in 27 minutes. Unlike Kyiv, there’s little time to reach a shelter in Kharkiv, but some spent their Christmas morning at the metro. A pair of videos: In the first, Iran wishes Ukraine a Merry Christmas. In the second, a Shahed drone explodes at a playground on Christmas Eve.
Diplomacy
Trump’s pick for special representative to Ukraine said, “Large-scale missile and drone attacks on the day of the Lord’s birth is wrong.”
The Biden administration is considering sanctions on the ships carrying Russia oil illegally and revoking the license that enables banks to process Russian energy transactions. They haven’t done so earlier because of the concern about gas prices rising. Since supplies are projected to be higher than demand next year, making it more difficult for Russian oil to reach the markets may not significantly raise gas prices.
South Korea says that 100 North Koreans were killed and another 1,000 were wounded. Ukraine believes that 200 have been killed and a little more than that wounded. North Korean wounded seem to be driven to the bigger hospitals in Kursk rather than the closer village hospitals used by the Russian wounded. About 11,000 troops have been sent so far and they may send a total of 100,000 troops over time. North Korea has a population of 25 million people and an army of one million people, a size that is difficult to maintain with its small economy.
South Korea impeached its president over two weeks ago because of his use of martial law. His case will be decided by the Constitutional Court, which will either uphold the impeachment or restore him back to power. Six of the nine judges are needed to uphold the impeachment. There are three vacancies and the interim president refuses to fill those vacancies so the National Assembly impeached him, as well. Even though the North Korean alliance with Russia is a threat to South Korea’s national security, its focus is likely to remain on domestic issues.
The US believes that North Korea offered their troops to Putin for future assistance and diplomatic support.
Many Republicans in congress have concerns about spending, corruption in Ukraine and the direction of the war. A respected Republican political operative that has been solving Ukrainian issues with his international connections is also rallying support for Ukraine among the Republican skeptics. One of his selling points is that of the Pentagon’s $750 billion budget, 15% of that money has helped turn the second most powerful army in the world to the second most powerful army in Ukraine, and not a single American soldier was killed.
Day 27 and day 28 of the protest in Georgia and the thugs were out. Some protestors were arrested at random. December 29 is the inauguration day for the president appointed by the regime-dominated electoral college. The current President called his appointment illegitimate and says she will not leave office. She said that if an agreement on new parliamentary elections isn’t reached by December 29th then the new elections will be achieved through the overthrow of the regime. On December 29th, she lost her immunity and her supporters said they will physically defend her. When the pro-Russian former football/soccer player was elected, many gave him a red card. He is the first president to be elected by the electoral college and not the voters.
Slovakia’s prime minister Fico went to Moscow and said Putin was “wrongly demonised” by the West. He joins Hungary’s Orban and Austria’s Nehammer as the only EU leaders to travel to Moscow since 2022. Supposedly, the meeting was about securing gas for Slovakia. The Czech Foreign Minister said they secured enemy independence from Russia and was thinking of all the Ukrainians who could not spend Christmas with their loved ones because of Putin. Zelensky said Fico refused compensation for the lost profit during the transition period and is interested in the profits in Russian oil and gas totalling $1 billion. "We are losing people as a result of the war that Putin started, and we believe that such [financial] assistance to Putin is immoral," said Zelensky. Thousands in Slovakia protested Fico’s trip. After the protest, the crowd chanted "Enough Fico" and "Glory to Ukraine".
Orban says the last four years have been the most difficult for him since he took power, and he believes, "The war will end in 2025. It will either end through peaceful negotiations or the destruction of one of the warring parties."
Austria’s far-right FPOe party signed a cooperation pact with Russia’s ruling party. The party calls for the removal of sanctions against Russia. Their candidate for president lost in a runoff election on December 4th.
Italy’s right-wing prime minister Meloni said, "We have to understand the [Russian] threat is much wider than we imagine."
Ukraine will cut off the flow of Russian gas through its country on January 1st and some of that gas went to Transnistria, which is part of Moldova but is occupied by Russian troops. Russia could transport the gas through Turkey but they say they won’t do that because Transnistria hasn’t paid its bills. Moldova denies Russia’s claim, saying it was invalidated by an international audit.
Fico threatened to halt electricity supplies to Ukraine but they can receive enough electricity from other nations.
The pope has called for peace and criticizes arms deliveries to Ukraine, calling it hypocritical. He talks about a lack of personal ethics and has yet to condemn Russia’s invasion.
Allied support of Ukraine’s economy is just as important as the collapse of the Russian economy. The UK and Japan sent $1 billion in social and humanitarian aid. Almost all of Ukraine’s taxes are spent on the war effort. Ukraine should receive $38 billion in 2025 to cover the budget deficit.
Syrians ask Ukrainians to not give up so they can also be free of Russians.
Equipment
60% of Russia’s artillery and mortar shells and 30% of their ballistic missiles come from North Korea.
Ukraine says Russia can produce about 135 Kalibr/Kh-101/Iskander missiles per month and have more than 1430 in reserve.
Russia is running out of armored vehicles so they’ve turned to golf carts, motorcycles and, increasingly, civilian cars to achieve some sort of speed across the open ground. Their assaults have a higher chance of success if they move quickly and give Ukraine less time to react with the movement of their own troops or with drones and other defensive fires. The reason why Ukraine is increasingly using drones to drop mines is to remove that mobility and give their forces more time to react to assaults. Even motorcycles lying unused on the ground are attacked by drone bombs or FPVs to prevent them from being used again. Speed, and denying speed, is important.
The British army successfully tested a Radio Frequency Directed Energy Weapon (RFDEW). It can disrupt or damage electronic components in drones up to 1 km away. The vehicle is a testbed and is not ready for production.
A German-developed drone can move at 300 kph as far as 20 km. Designed to intercept other drones, they are collaborating with Ukrainian developers in order to learn from each other.
Portugal donated six inoperable helicopters and Ukraine restored at least one of them to a working condition.
The US is spending $253 million to build engines and increase the production of Harpoon, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles (LRASM), Tomahawk, and other precision strike weapons. These engines had been the biggest obstacle to increasing production. Some of those weapons are earmarked for Ukraine.
Two Polish F-35A fighters arrived at a National Guard base in Arkansas for training. The six months training for Ukrainian pilots and mechanics on Mirage 2000’s has ended.
Latvia sent 612 vehicles confiscated from drunk drivers to Ukraine. They were valued at €2.25 million. The prime minister said, “100% of Latvian society supports Ukraine – even those who drive drunk.”
Organization and Leadership
The Ukrainian army has a wide spectrum of capabilities ranging from excellent to incompetent. It all depends on the individual leader. Generally speaking, if an individual leader is competent, then the units subordinate to that leader eventually become competent.
In this war, there are no operational or strategic secrets. Both sides know where each other’s units are. But there can be a misinterpretation of the known facts which functions as a surprise.
The Ukrainian army doesn’t spend enough time interpreting the known facts to determine the enemy’s likely courses of actions, and it does not spend enough time developing plans to counter those actions. Such planning can take the form of physical defenses that are competently built and placed, or making sure units are properly supported with resources, (including personnel), and with supporting units on the flanks and in reserve. It is possible they do not have the capacity to make such assessments, or it is possible that they are too focused on micromanaging that they cannot see the big picture. But then, micromanagement is itself a form of incompetence.
The Ukrainian army spends too much time reacting, and then its reactions are too late. It is in a constant state of emergency. Its belated actions, such as detaching units from a hundred kilometers away to throw in front of a gaping hole in the lines, or throwing trained support units to the front line as untrained infantry, simply sets the conditions for future emergencies. A successful army is an army of systems. Ad hoc actions should be an exception but for the Ukrainian army it is the norm.
Generally speaking, if an individual leader is competent, then the units subordinate to that leader eventually become competent. Ukraine needs a competent leader at the highest level.
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Yuri Butusov wrote an article about Ukraine’s organization and leadership. What he says has been said before, and what he says is true.
Happy new year Don. You continue to do excellent work 👍. The leadership stuff is of particular interest, thank you for picking that up.
Thanks Don! Hopefully a better year ahead!