Intro and input by Tom Cooper
Hello everybody!
From the ‘European’ point of view, the last week was another one of our glorious zombie idiots arranging another meeting, to arrange another meeting, to arrange yet another meeting, so they can talk about talking, and appease to the left and right. We’re world champions in this discipline, meanwhile.
…of course, also with ‘hopes’ that there are going to be serious negotiations in Turkey…
Primarily because they’re all paid to think that one must- and still can appease Pudding, Dumpf, and now Pope too, and anything is better than acting on our own. And then, during one of usual press conferences following such meetings to arrange meetings amd have flashy photos shot by the media, they’ve announced ‘devastating sanctions’ against Russia… Aha. And? For what are they waiting with such sanctions for the last three (+) years? For Pudding to devastate Ukraine, first? Or is it so that now they’re taking it personally that he’s obviously considering them all for incompetent fools that do not matter? For NPCs?
But wait: the newest hope is that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is going to put Putin in his place. Read: as next Europe is going to outsource our foreign politcs, too.
Probably because it’s cheaper if made by Beijing…
The Americans were still busy feeling dumbfounded by Dumpf & Co KG GesmbH AG being publicly bribed by the Qataris. Sure: even I cannot understand how could that happen to a convicted fellon with a history of money-laundering for the FSB (via the Russian mafia), that successfully bankrupted every single of 14 enterprises he’s founded in his life. Absolutely amazing and so unexpected, can’t say. But hey: he’s invented something entirely new. It’s called ‘commercial diplomacy’: consists of concluding massive deals with (mildly expressed) dubious dictators for which nobody is sure that can be implemented, and on behalf of short-term commercial gain while overlooking security.
Stunning concept, isn’t it? And so much new, and better than before. Especially because something of that kind was never tried before. Particularly not in the Russian Federation or the PRC….
…which reminds me that the only thing I’m really wondering about whenever thinking of the orange character is: considering stringent immigration rules, how could it happen thousands of such like Mogilevich ever being granted permission to enter the USA? …and why do I have the feeling nobody else is asking that question, at least not in the public, some 15-20 times a day?
Must be consequent and systematic application of the above-mentioned immigration rules - and that over decades…
On the contrary, I doubt anybody in Ukraine was surprised or disappointed any more. There’s no reason. The incompetence of the European top politicians is well-known; that US presidents are behaving like madmen on dope is nothing new; the Russian continuous assaulting on the ground was nothing new; during the night from 17 to 18 May, the Russians released the record-braking 273 attack UAVs into the Ukrainian airspace (88 were claimed as shot down, 128 as jammed), and even that was nothing new; the air force lost yet another F-16 (fortunately, the pilot survived this time) which is nothing new; yet another distinguished ZSU commander is complaining about the incompetence of the Glavcom & Buddies (Syrsky and the Ukrainian General Staff), which is nothing new; and the people know that Pudding is NOT preparing the Russian public for any kind of a peace deal, nor for an end of war. There was simply nothing new, and there is nothing to expect…
…and, please, everybody: do not try to learn any kind of lessons from the latest episodes in the Indo-Pakistani Telenovela: especially not from India changing its strategy for 180 degrees ‘in the middle of an ongoing conflict’, or emphasising dependence on own defence sector to improve its military capabilities.
Not only is that happening ‘on the other side of the world’ - and not in Europe, and is thus ‘unimportant’ - but: why shall ‘anybody civilised’ learn anything from a ‘Third World country’…?
Sigh… Perhaps it’s better to, at this point in time, hand over to Don…
***
Kursk
A Ukrainian M577 command vehicle is destroyed 3 km from the Russian border and 7 km from Tyotkino. Six bombs hit a building complex 1500 meters south of the border.
Russians in Guyevo casually wave to a reconaissance drone, which is followed by an airstrike. 700 meters to the east, a Ukrainian incursion into Guyevo draws Russian shellfire.
The HQ of the 40th Marine Brigade was bombed by Ukraine and the deputy commander was killed.
The first 2S43 152mm SPA was delivered to the Russian army in October 2023. The first report of one being destroyed was in mid-April. The second one was a week ago.
***
Kharkiv
Zuravlyovka is a small village on the Russian side of the border. It’s held by Ukraine and a Russian attack resulted in the destruction of six armored vehicles, two ATVs plus a number of motorcycles and infantry. Another group, probably planning to attack the village from the east, was intercepted 5 km from the front lines and lost two tanks, three BMPs and two trucks.
In western Vovchansk, Ukrainian positions are bombarded by weapons with thermal warheads.
***
Kupiansk
A week ago, during Pudding’s ‘cease fire’, a Russian motorcycle assault out of Zapadne was eliminated.
***
Terny
Russia used drone bombs in Ridkodub, and Russians were bombed in Love, but the front lines didn’t move.
***
Siversk
Siversk is once again bombed and heavily shelled.
***
Chasiv Yar
Western Chasiv Yar is bombarded by rockets once again.
10 km from the front lines, the traffic signals still function in Kostyantynivka but cars don’t stop because they want to minimize their exposure in open spaces. There are no police to enforce traffic laws, in any case. Because of the curfew, people can only move about from 11 am to 3 pm.
Cluster munitions from a Smerch missile killed two people recently. About 15,000 of the city’s 67,000 people remain despite a mandatory evacuation order last summer. When someone dies, it is likely that their surviving family members have already fled the city. Those that stayed behind contact the funeral home and, with little money, choose the cheapest coffin or stop talking to the home because they can’t afford it. The funeral home buries the dead anyway.
A 2001 census revealed that 59% of the city was ethnic Ukrainian and 78% spoke Russian. Not all of them support Ukraine. When the war began, any lines in front of a store or a group of soldiers standing around were attacked by bombs or missiles so often, nobody considered this a coincidence. Some of the older citizens blamed the bombing on Ukraine. In 2014, separatist mobs set up checkpoints and waved Russian flags. One resident tells of growing up in this city as part of the Soviet Union. His history teacher would tell him of what Stalin did and provided him with banned books. That is why he still supported Ukraine in 2014. And yet this same teacher supports the separatists and was complaining about Ukrainian fascists after the Russian attack.
The city lies in a river valley with hills between the city and Chasiv Yar. Much of the city is still intact, but a local soldier says that if the Russians reach those hills 5 km away then the town will be destroyed. He’s not sure how long it will take Russia to advance that far. A year, maybe, or less.
***
Toretsk
This battle is meanwhile making so much sense, that it cannot but be commanded by the Glavcom Syrsky - in person. Why? Because it’s beginning to remind of Bakhmut in February 2023.
For example: central Toretsk is bombarded by Ukrainian drones and Russian shelling, alike. More Ukrainian drones hunt Russian infantry from the center of Toretsk to one kilometer north of the city. An ATGM is aimed at a Ukrainian position. More footage of the entirely pointless, suicidal Ukrainian assault into Toretsk on May 8th. Syrsky must have been disappointed because it looks like at least two Ukrainian soldiers were brazen enough to not only have survived, but were able to run away…
A crossroads 4 km west of Nova Poltavka is shelled. 5 km north of the village, an AS-90 155mm SPG is destroyed. Ukrainian drones and positions are attacked inside the village by drones and with shelling. A Russian flag was planted in the village but it may still be in Ukrainian hands.
Russians in Vodiane Druhe are harrassed by drones and a BMP is destroyed. Russia plants a flag in eastern Malynivka and attack a group of buildings 2500 meters north of the village.
Ukrainian positions in Stara Mykolaivka and south of Romanivka are attacked.
The Russian push in between Pokrovsk and Toretsk should not have been a surprise to Ukraine’s military leadership. As the Kurakhovke cauldron shrank, there was less frontage available for Russian units. At the end of December, two Russian brigades were withdrawn from Kurakhove and sent to Vozdvyzhenka. Russia had been conducting constant attacks in this area for months, but since the end of July 2024, the only progress they made was west of the village and that progress was stalled since the end of August.
With these two new Russian brigades, though, progress resumed at the end of December. The 157th Mechanized Brigade, formed last summer (after Zelensky has announced his order that no new brigades are going to be formed), was sent as a reinforcement to defend Tarasivka in February. It was inexperienced, but at least the entire brigade was deployed together.
By February 24th, two Russian divisions had been withdrawn from Kurakhove and an OSINT observer predicted they would be sent to support the heavy fighting in Toretsk by deploying to the west of Toretsk and reported that an artillery brigade was moved to Toretsk.
Of course, all the related warnings were ignored in Kyiv: why should generals proven as wise and as skilled as Syrsky & Buddies listen to any kind of advice?
Even as Russia advanced out of Avidiivka and advanced towards Pokrovsk, they did not move north against Kalynove and Oleksandropil since June of 2024. That was still true when Russia moved north into Niu York in July. On this ‘quiet’ sector, the 109th and 111th Territorial Defense Brigades of Ukraine have held their ground. That changed when the Russians, reinforced by those two divisions, started attacking at the end of March.
Last August, Russia formed the Rubicon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies by taking the best drone operators from units throughout the Russian army. Unlike many Russian units, they have an informal culture and are encouraged to test new ideas and replicate them on a large scale. When they were moved to Kursk, Ukrainian logistics immediately began to suffer as the limited supply roads were interdicted with drones. Their activities sped up the Russian advance in Kursk by weeks and scores of Ukrainian vehicles were destroyed trying to bring supplies in and while trying to withdraw. The presence of the Rubicon drone unit indicates a major Russian effort and in mid-April they were moved in between Toretsk and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian troops report that they are having an immediate and significant impact on the battlefield. One impact was eliminating Ukrainian reconnaissance drones.
Also in mid-April, and in his endless wisdom (outmatched only by Dumpf, of course), Glavcom Syrsky reverted to his old, ‘proven’ practices of piecemeal reinforcement by sending one battalion of the 5th Brigade, one battalion of the 36th Marine Brigade from Kursk, and the drone units from the 91st Anti-Tank Battalion, all to help out the 157th and 109th brigades. In addition, the 111th Brigade was reinforced by one battalion of the 38th Marine Brigade. Then he did something entirely new: in late April, he sent elements (not even a full battalion) of the 425th Skala Regiment, which had been leading counterattacks in the western Pokrovsk sector, to help out the 111th Brigade. And, since the resulting chaos was still not enough, the 12th Azov Brigade had one battalion in the area (whose role remains unclear; probably, the Glavcom simply forgot about it).
In the meantime, Russia moved another brigade and regiment from Kurakhove to put more pressure on the Ukrainian defenses west of Vozdvyzhenka.
A belated Christmas- and Easter surprise! Sure, we don’t have the complete information, but meanwhile it’s quite obvious that the ZSU - the Ukrainian Armed Forces - have re-deployed several brigades to inactive border areas, or into rear areas, so they can rest, re-organise, recover their combat effectiveness. We are quite certain even the involved troops are wondering how could this happen to them: considering Syrsky was refusing any such measures as of one year ago (so much so, even the US Joint Chiefs of Staff paid a visit to Kyiv, to explain him the importance of resting troops), it must be that Drapaty (Commander Ground Forces ZSU) started taking such decisions on his own.
…and, have no doubts: at his own risk, too…
Why should Syrsky help him, where he was so successful in de-railing the summer counteroffensive of 2023, for the purpose of gaining fame with a completely pointless counteroffensive in the Bakhmut area?
But, that’s ‘going off topic’…
What is certain is that Ukraine - read: Glavcom Syrsky - had information of a Russian buildup in the south, and did not counter it for months. Instead of preventing a crisis, he did the usual: reacted to it. And, while at that, he once again detached battalions from brigades, further fragmenting units when they were theoretically supposed to be reuniting units and forming corps….
So very much new, considering Glavcom’s commanding style, and ‘so much better than before’… hey: we’re surprised Dumpf didn’t hire Syrsky to take over as the Secretary of Defence of the USA!
***
Pokrovsk
Novoserhiivka was attacked by Russians and defended by drones. While the attacks in the west continue, it is the east that continues to unravel. As the penetration north of Tarasivka continues, it destabilizes the defenses to the left and right.
A mechanized assault was eliminated by the 414th drone regiment. One Russian was lucky as a drone bounced off of him but another was unlucky because the same drone deflected to him.
***
Andrivka
Russian shelling starts a fire in eastern Bahatyr conducted another bombardment in the west. Ukrainian drones hunt for Russians at the same location the Russians bombarded in the west. After the massive bombardment last week, Russians were spotted with flags in the north and west of the village. Ukrainians tore down the flags and pushed out the Russians. Any successful counterattack is good, but the village is vulnerable to future Russian attacks.
***
Komar
Russians enter Vilna Pole and pursue Ukrainians with drones and artillery shells.
Kherson
Russian targets that are spotted in Nova Khakovka are bombed.
***
Unknown Location
Not many people are hit on the head by an FPV drone and walk away.
Both sides are plagued by the whine of drone engines. When weather diminishes drone activity, they scramble to secure food, water and ammo. Most of the time they hide, hoping they won’t be noticed. Two Russians describe their experiences.
On 11 May, Senior Warrant Officer Vitaliy Nikolayevich Shapovalov (51), a reconnaissance sniper of the Russian Army Special Forces, was ‘converted to 200’. Shapovalov was known as one of the Russia's best and most decorated military snipers, and was a recipient of ten Russian state awards.
***
Russia
At the end of Second World War, the US economy experienced a V-Day recession when the demobilized soldiers and a sudden decline in military spending reduced economic production by 11 percent. At the end of the Cold War, millions of Soviet soldiers were unemployed and the number of impoverished people rose. Political objectives aside - though to an endlessly huge surprise of all the ‘Western leaders’ - it would be difficult for Putin to stop his war against Ukraine. If peace was attained and soldiers were discharged and military spending was reduced, the Russian economy would face a lot of difficulties. Sure: right now, there are labor shortages. However, civilian businesses relying on capitalism cannot afford to take out high interest loans to expand their business and hire new labor. At the same time, the longer Putin fights, the more the Russian economy is transformed into a military economy and the harder it will be to convert to a peacetime economy…
Russian oil export revenues are at their lowest level since June 2023. Sanctions cap the price at $60 per barrel and the Russian oil is selling for $55.64 per barrel. Russia expects 24% lower revenues this year than earlier estimates.
The glorious Russian Navy has towed a patrol boat from the Caspian Sea to the Sea of Azov via the country’s system of rivers and canals - and has managed to damage its shaft and propeller in the process…
***
Ukraine
The commander of a battalion in the 47th Brigade resigned because of stupid tasks leading to the loss of life and political games. He told the General Staff of the Armed Forces, “I hope your children will also be in the infantry and carry out your tasks.” In response, the Chief of the General Staff created a working group to study the issue.
As regular readers of this blog know very well, we’ve - repeatedly - pointed out at such and similar problems within the ZSU, all through the summer and autumn the last year (as a ‘classic’ example, see Dreamland). Therefore, we cannot avoid the conclusion that a mere announcement of (yet another) ‘investigation’, and a ‘creation of a working group’ alone are going to solve all such Ukrainian problems once and for all…
…while finally starting to sack incompetent generals - could never, ever have similar effects…
Ukraine lost a third F-16 but this time the pilot survived. During a Russian missile and drone attack, the pilot shot down three targets with cannon and was engaging a fourth when a ‘malfunction occurred’. Meanwhile, some 40 out of promised 85 F-16s have been transferred to Ukraine. The US and Norway are providing additional airframes to serve as sources of spare parts.
How come? Well, when there is such a shortage of surface-to-air missiles, that the Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defence Force (PSZSU) has no try replacing these by its ‘manned interceptors’, i.e. has no other options than to task all its available pilots and F-16s and Mirage 2000s (plus whatever is left of MiG-29s and Su-27s) with flying (at least) two intercept sorties a night… then accidents (including blue-on-blues) are unavoidable. Of course, this is all ‘top secret’, and the PSZSU is never making any kind of mistakes - and thus this topic is not even discussed in the public.
As usually - and in the light of all the zombie idiots in ‘the West’ proving so ultimately incompetent in regards of ramping up production of surface-to-air missiles - it is on lower-ranking Ukrainians to find solutions on their own. Correspondingly, in April this year the 412th Nemesis Regiment - which specializes in designing and operating strategic attack drones (see: long-range UAVs, deployed to strike deep into Russia) - formed an interception group designed to destroy the Russian attack drones. By 28 April they had shot down 52 of UAVs released deep into the Ukrainian airspace. Three weeks later the count was increased to 100 drones destroyed, 76 of them being Geran 2’s and 24 were Gerbara’s. Their $5000 interceptor drones can fly 200 km/h up to 5000 meters altitude. The Shahed-136 (aka Geran 2) has a max speed of 185 km/h and a max altitude of 8000 meters. The Gerbera has a max speed of 160 km/h and a max altitude of 3000 meters.
Sic transit gloria mundi… at least in Ukraine it’s so that if neither the politicians, nor (in this case) the air force can do their job, then ‘somebody else’ will. If the people in question prove capable of overcoming such hurdless like incompetent and corrupt generals in Kyiv, plus SBU’s control over the main company manufacturing optics in Ukraine, plus diverse oligarchs… all of which is usually solved in a ‘simple’ fashion (see: bribery) - the ZSU could pioneer the mass development of anti-UAV-UAVs…
***
Diplomacy
Because of the help or damage the US can do to either side, both Russia and the Ukrainian coalition are speaking words with the hope of swaying Trump to their side or at least convince him not to do any more additional damage. Since Russia does not want to stop fighting it provides the Ukrainian coalition with an advantage of words, but Trump continues to excuse Russian behavior. The words spoken in Turkey did lead to an agreement to exchange 1000 prisoners, but the Russian demands were designed to continue the fighting. The Ukrainian coalition threatened to impose more sanctions on Russia if they didn’t accept a cease fire on May 12th. Russian words delayed those sanctions but the Ukrainian coalition is now considering implementing the sanctions on May 20th in coordination with the US. The US State Department warned Russia about the pending Senate sanctions, but nothing counts until it happens.
Estonia tried to inspect a ship called both Jaguar and Argent, that was registered in both Gabon and Guinea-Bissau, was sanctioned by the UK for carrying Russian oil, and was affiliated with an Indian ship management company that is one of the leading operators of the Russian shadow fleet. The tanker was instructed to change course but refused to do so. An Estonian helicopter and prop-plane circled overhead. Then a Russian Su-35 entered Estonian airspace with its transponder turned off. A Portuguese F-16 based in Estonia responded and also circled the airspace. Estonia decided the intervention wasn’t worth it and escorted the ship out of its waters and it continued to a Russian port. Estonia gave Russia a protest note regarding the violation of its airspace. In retaliation, Russia seized a ship that exited an Estonian port.
The EU is sending Ukraine $1.1 billion from the interest of the frozen Russian assets. Russia is calling it theft.
Poland arrested some of the Russian agents that burned a shopping mall last year. They vow to arrest all the suspects and close the Russian consulate in Krakow as a consequence.
France published a report on the misinformation, espionage and sabotage attacks Russia conducted on their country.
Belarusian Territorial Troops were formed in 2016 and consist of conscripts that undergo short-term training and are activated when there is a threat or emergency. They protect facilities, counter sabotage, maintain public order and control the territory. They are training with Russia in the West 2025 military exercise near Brest, close to the Polish and Ukrainian borders.
In January, Syria cancelled a Tartus port operating lease with Russia. Last week, a UAE company signed an $800 million deal to do the same. They also have an operating lease with a French company for the port of Latakia. Syria offered oil and gas to the US and the possibility of a Trump tower in Damascus. What a surprise then: Trump lifted the sanctions on Syria.
***
Drone Development
A Ukrainian commander of a small drone unit from the 109th Territorial Defense Brigade says that a lot of drone development is dependent on the soldiers in the front line working with engineers and civilian fund raisers. After 18 months of fighting or more, it is exhausting just to perform combat duties let alone trying to innovate and secure supplies. He maintains that the innovation and development of technology is a more important battlefield than the front lines, and these innovations have to be produced in large volumes.
The government needs to lead this effort to support all units, especially the ones without a large public interface who have no capabilities to produce or buy the dones in the quantities needed. Sustainment is critical in wars of attrition and small units struggling to survive expend more mental energy to accomplish the same functions as larger units and this impacts their military readiness.
In the past, one limitation on drone operations were radio frequencies. Two drones could not operate on the same frequency without interfering with each other, and adjacent Russian drones units would often fail to coordinate and would jam each other by trying to fly on the same frequency. Fiber optic drones don’t use frequencies and don’t interfere with other drone operations. Ukrainian soldiers report that hundreds of Russian drones now operate in the same skies at the same time and that wasn’t true a year ago.
Ukraine developed drones that could attack targets 50 km from the front line and while there are few logistical targets between the front line and 10 km, there are a lot of targets beyond that. Destroying the vehicles interrupts the supply lines and makes it difficult to attack. Now Russia is now using the same capabilities to the same effect on Ukrainian operations. This impacts both logistics and drone operations. The continued development of longer ranged drones would provide them with the same standoff capability as longer ranged artillery, increasing their operational effectiveness and the safety of the drone crew.
In addition to increasing the range of drones, developments need to be made in the defense against drones, with active elements that destroy drones and passive defenses, such as tunnels over roads that obscure the vision of drones and prevent drones from hitting vehicles. Robotic solutions also need to be improved for supplying units and evacuation casualties or rotating troops to and from the line.
Some solutions for the current situation have already been found. The 414th regiment is one of the large drone units that successfully innovates and produces at scale. They kill Russians effectively and protect their soldiers while doing so. Their commander says that in nine months they lost 20 soldiers while engaging 30,929 targets and killing or wounding 10,000 Russians. The Drone Line concept is designed to replicate these successes across the front lines but progress has been slow.
The battlefield is constantly changing. The faster Ukraine innovates and implements, the greater degree of control they will have over the battlefield.
Equipment
Back in 2011, a bad fuze detonated the 155mm round at Ft. Bragg but no one was killed. This M777 barrel exploded a year ago. The gunner’s extra long lanyard certainly reduced his injuries. This M777 exploded after heavy use. It’s likely that the hot barrel wasn’t swabbed and the powder charges detonated. Artillery is damaged through barrel wear, overheating due to sustained rates of fire and other issues. This 17 minute video describes how the M777 is deployed and fired, and has other details, such as the impact of air density and the temperature of the powder charges.
As of September 2024, 73% of the 25,000 recovered Russian missile components came from America. The US chip companies told the senate that they are complying with sanctions and the basic microchips in the Russian missiles were not on the list and were produced before the 2022 invasion. The US senate found that some of the manufacturers did the bare minimum in compliance efforts and were focused on avoiding responsibility. The senate is now considering preventing China from accessing advanced American chips. These are just the advanced chips, even though Russia receives 88% of its sanctioned chips from China. (The Maldives also re-sold $53 million worth of chips to Russia). The sanctions have caused bottlenecks in Russian production and caused the price of the re-sales to rise by 80%. Chipmaking machines have been imported by South Korea and Taiwan. Israel is not participating in sanctions on Russia and sent 30 shipments of chipmaking tech.
During 2024, Russia was able to produce one Su-35S a month. Algeria may have bought 14 of them.
In the first half of 2026, Estonia will start building 2,000 drones a day initially. Latvia will deliver 12,000 drones to Ukraine in the first half of this year.
France is building 12 Caesar guns a month and will deliver all of 2025’s production to Ukraine. They are also transferring 90% (of some unstated number) of the replacement barrels they produce to Ukraine. Croatia, Estonia and Lithuania bought the Caesar artillery systems and Croatia was supposed to receive 30 by late 2025. Estonia received the first six of 12 ordered in January 2025.
***
Lockheed Martin is ending ATACMS production in favor of the next generation PrSM missile. Europe does not have access to the PrSM and prefers the longer-ranged ATACMS to the GMLR, all of which can be fired from the HIMARS or MLRS vehicle. The current ‘annual need’ for missiles is about 700 ATACMS, 2500 GMLRs, 5000 Hellfires (air-to-ground missiles), 5200 JAGMs (Hellfire’s replacement) and 300 PAC-3 Patriot missiles.
…of course, provided none are sent to Ukraine..
During Second World War, the US was known as the ‘arsenal for democracy’ based on their production capacity. Because it is three years after the 2022 open invasion and US missile production is still insufficient, Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin agreed to build a production facility in Germany. The facility should be completed in 12-13 months at which time they’ll begin rocket engine production. Complete rocket production would then begin in 2027 and then the production line would ramp up in 2028-2029 to 10,000 missiles of various types each year. The joint production facility still requires US government approval but, the supply chains for the facility are being established right now.
Don thanks,
how it works with crowdfunding a delivering stuff where needed
https://nazory.aktualne.cz/denik-dobrovolnika-3-mac/r~e2b6b78e2fbd11f0ae9c0cc47ab5f122/