Tom’s intro:
Hello everybody!
Last Saturday, the area where I’m living was hit by a thunderstorm and heavy downpour. Sure, nothing comparable to what we often see from ‘somewhere else’, but still: one person is missing, several farms (including all the animals) and dozens of cars washed away… over 3000 firefighters and 200 troops of the Austrian Bundesheer deployed, plus hundreds of volunteers. A family in the village where I’m living was in need of some help with clearing debris, too - and that amid elections for the EU Parliament, run yesterday. Thus, sorry for interruption: I’ll get back to answering your questions in the coming days.
Meanwhile, it’s Monday and therefore the time for Don’s summary of the last week. Let me just add that over the last 48 hours, the Ukrainians have
targeted the Akhtubinsk AB - the principal Russian flight-test centre - with UAVs; three of these have hit the base, one ‘at least damaged’ a Su-57s: the Russian ‘stealth’ - but non-operational - fighter jet; the Russians are not yet sure if it’s worth repairing; must’ve been the first type of combat aircraft jet since 1945 damaged even before it entered operational service (and yes, I know: there are reports that it already flew combat sorties over Syria and Ukraine, but sorry: I call that hogwash);
targeted another Russian amphibious assault ship in the Sea of Azov (apparently by a naval drone); results are unclear as of right now;
targeted a Russian ‘command node’ in the Belgorod area with Storm Shadow or SCALP-EG missile (see: one or more of Su-24s of the PSU have fired such a missile at one of Russian headquarters inside Russia). While Ukrainians and NATO are still ‘assessing results’, the Russians ‘confirmed’ that the Belgorod area was ‘attacked by numerous drones’…
Guess, the epitome of the Western systemic incompetence in governance (indeed: the ‘Zombie Idiotism’) visible on the photo below (between others: it’s such characters, but here in the EU, who ‘can’t explain what they call he ‘shift to the right’ in the EU elections) - is going to over-spill his cup of coffee when informed about that, early in the morning, US time… which is still an hour or two away…
Sometimes…. yes, sometimes it would be interesting to be that proverbial ‘fly on the wall’ in certain places at certain points in time…
Kharkiv
In the Hlyboke and Lukiantsi sector to the west, the Russians have been relying on infantry to hold the line. Ukraine is attacking across the sector but is focusing on Hlyboke and is making a small amount of progress. Over in Vovchansk, Ukrainian infantry and special forces are pushing the Russians back house by house and the Russians are pushing back by sending more reinforcements. Ukrainian drones and artillery are interdicting their movement and supply lines.
Ukraine’s counter attacks in Vovchansk are destroying Russian companies and yielding prisoners…https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1798625665182494723
Another Russian surrenders in Vovchansk…https://x.com/moklasen/status/1797661933300302255
Drones patrol for Russian soldiers in Vovchansk…https://x.com/moklasen/status/1798764051369218077
The 42nd Brigade takes a toll on Russian assaults…https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1797231177624887613
A small depot is destroyed, but these actions add up…https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1797234283184111803
One report of a Ukrainian soldier in Vovchansk who noticed a machine gun aiming at him from ten meters away…https://x.com/albafella1/status/1798755244853059684
North of Lyptsi, a 92nd Brigade BMP strafes Russians in Hlyboke at close range…https://x.com/wartranslated?lang=en
Western Luhansk
There’s little activity in this sector and none in Terny, where Russia had been pushing so hard for so long. The most active sector is centered on Tabaivka, where Russia has advanced 3 km in six months, although most of that was during the last six weeks.
Ukraine has been using drones to lay minefields or directly attack vehicles with it. That supposedly happened here but the drone captures the aftermath of whatever did happen, which is a smoking vehicles and personnel running away…https://x.com/moklasen/status/1798808739597701254
Bakhmut
Chasiv Yar’s canal district is in the final phase of a Russian assault. In the woods west of Ivanivske and south of the canal district, Russia is pushing towards the canal. They secured most of the woods but any patrols that were sent across the canal were eliminated soon after. Russian attempts to reach the canal north of the canal district failed, so they focused on frontal attacks on the district from the east and south.
Instead of columns of vehicular assaults, infantry moved through the treelines and woods moved into the edge of the district. Heavy bombardments force Ukrainians into shelter and then the Russian infantry would move into the city. Ukrainian infantry would emerge from their cover and started to expel the Russians but the Russians were entering the city at a faster rate than they were being expelled. By the end of the week, Russia was in control of the eastern half of the canal district, which included over half of the well-built multi-story buildings that were particularly durable in the face of bombardment. They are likely to continue advancing in the canal district.
Further south, the Russians continued to push west of Klischiivka without success. Over the last few weeks, Ukrainian drones have been able to damage or destroy most of the Russian vehicles before they reached the front line, and that was true for last week, as well.
Russian infantry advancing on the western edge of Ivanivske are attacked by drones…https://x.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1797996151490134235
Avdiivka
Russia was able to advance 500 meters to the outskirts of Novooleksandrivka but they were kept out of the village itself. West of Soloviove, the Russians and Ukrainians are both fighting to advance without either gaining ground. Russia was unable to advance at any other location and many vehicles making their way to Soloviove and Novooleksandrivka were knocked out 6-10 km before they reached the front lines.
Two BTRs and a few infantry are destroyed by Bradley…https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1797187507936706928
A vehicle repair shop in Soledar is struck by an M31 rocket. This is the aftermath…https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1797313552027382059
A BTR and Bradley joust on the only road in Sokil. Some of the Russian infantry fall off the BTR, and the BTR itself ends up smoking. The Bradley seems to be in good shape but the video ends before the combat does…https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1799114307239837742/video/3
I’ve seen plenty of videos of motorcycle assaults failing. I haven’t seen any videos of successes. These motorcyclists were heading to Sokil…https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1799183003488248168
An artillery round convinces a Russian motorcyclist to change his plans…https://t.me/black_swan_ukraine/108
A Russian tank is hit by a drone as it rams an MT-LB to move it out of the road…https://t.me/blackraven93ua/90
Marinka
From Krasnohorivka, to Marinka, to Novomykhailivka, to 5 km west of Solodke, there was intense fighting all along this sector with heavy Russian bombardments. Russia did make a 500 meter gain near Solodke but nowhere else, and they lost a lot of vehicles trying to advance. One of the factors helping out is the presence of ATGMs that have long been absent.
10 km south of Novomykhailivka, a Russian assault ends when the lead tank is destroyed…https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1798584150179615225
More Russian assaults south of Novomykhailivka…https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1799180769799086082
A close-up view of an external combustion engine on a T-90 tank…https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1798878092154536416
Zaporizhzhia
There were no further Russian advances through Staromaiorske and Urozhaine but Russia lost at least 8 more vehicles. In Robotyne the lines were static, as well, and no vehicles were recorded as lost for either side in that sector. While there were moments of intense bombardment, the intensity of fighting at both locations seems to be at a lower level.
To the east of Urozhaine, a Russian assault is stopped by drones…https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1798662126338298239
Kherson
For over two weeks, Ukrainian infantry planted their flag on a water tower on the eastern edge of Kozachi Laheri. Russians have tried to remove it and died in the attempt. Russia’s last recorded attempt to take Nestryha Island was about two weeks ago. The shelling and airstrikes on the right bank are still very heavy.
A Russian position with some number of personnel is hit by GMLRS. The number of casualties wasn’t listed but the Russians showed the effects afterwards…https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1799138729195610454
Krynky used to be heavily bombed. The Kherson region is still heavily bombed but Krynky itself hasn’t been bombed for a month. There’s nothing left to bomb…https://t.me/atompobeda/3816
Crimea
Ukrainian sea drones breached a barrier and sunk a tug boat…https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1798630323342975168
Russia
At the Akthubinsk Air Base - nearly 600 km from the border to Ukraine - a Sukhoi Su-57s was hit by a drone. Able to launch cruise missiles, this is the Russia’s much lauded ‘5th generation’, ‘stealth’ fighter and, in their minds, superior to anything the West has. As of December 2023, a total of 22 prototypes and 0-series aircraft were manufactured, out of a total of 76 that were ‘on order’. The majority of them is at Akthubinsk, where they are undergoing flight-testing while the team involved is trying to write technical- and tactical manuals for them, and the companies involved are trying to sort out all the software-related issues marring the project for nearly 10 years meanwhile (between others, there are issues with integration of all the on board sensors and the steering of their future engines). The number of ‘fully mission capable’ examples (see: aircraft with all of their systems in operational condition) was probably at around six. Now there are just five:…https://www.newsweek.com/russia-jet-ukraine-su-57-gur-astrakhan-1910129
The Russian social media is confirming the damage on a jet. Ironically, and as can be seen from attached satellite photographs: the Russians were in the process of constructing a ‘Sun-shelter’-like UAV-cover over the jet…
Another Ukrainian drone hit the Mozdok AB, a base from which the Russian Tu-22M-3 bombers were staging their air strikes on Syria, back in 2015-2019, and, since 2022, on Ukraine. It’s over 700 km away from Ukraine. Right now, there are no details on the specific damage caused…https://x.com/kromark/status/1799446331251147063
An opinion on the Russian economy…https://x.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1798537710120153373
Another complaint from the ranks about Russian casualties. This will change nothing…https://x.com/TOGAjano21/status/1799124607816896532
Russia is testing anti-drone nets for refineries…https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1798769361064468907
Oh, look: Another nuclear threat if someone does something…https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/putin-calls-major-expansion-russian-financial-markets-cutting-use-western-2024-06-07/
One of Putin’s homes burned…https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/30/7458442/
Putin says there’s no need for nukes or a mobilization because Russia has increased it’s production by a factor of 20 and there are plenty of volunteers…https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1799187227622183214
An oil refinery that was 170 km from the front was defended by anti-drone nets. It burned anyway…https://mil.in.ua/en/news/drones-hit-a-refinery-in-the-rostov-region/
Ukraine
When you have an hour, here is a series of articles that talks about Ukrainian special forces operations in Kabul, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mariupol, Snake Island and Balakliya, the opening battle in the Kharkiv offensive. They also fought in Bakhmut, attempted to assassinate Prigozhin and crossed the Russian border in privately purchased Blackhawk helicopters. Budanov still takes part in some missions. Written before the US resumed aid, the article tells of their concerns about supplies and how the war of attrition takes its toll on survivors.
Ukrainian special forces have been documented attacking Russian forces in Sudan. Here’s a video of them attacking Russian forces in Syria.
This article is from three months ago. It details the experience of a Chosen Company member’s encounter with a grenade. Chosen Company is staffed by experienced foreign fighters.
As a large city, Mariupol suffered the most destroyed buildings. Of the 106 hospitals destroyed throughout Ukraine, 18 were in Mariupol. They also lost 34 of the 109 churches and 237 of the 708 schools. Marinka and its 200-year-old history does not have a single building that survived.
I’ve seen beds in bunkers and soldiers sleeping in open air dirt fighting positions, but I’ve never seen bed frames in open air dirt fighting positions…https://x.com/albafella1/status/1799207904740053428
While Putin claims Zelensky is illegitimate, Zelensky notes that Putin is elected by Putin…https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-hits-back-at-putins-claims-about-ukraines-president-legitimacy/
South of Kyiv a fuel depot was hit…https://x.com/3_bm15/status/1799198047596921167
Russia killed 174 Ukrainian civilians last month, the most since June, 2023. Russia’s incursion into the Kharkiv was a major contributor to these deaths…https://kyivindependent.com/un-monthly-civilian-death-toll-rises-to-highest-point-in-almost-a-year/
Zelensky’s encounter with a WW2 veteran in Normandy…https://x.com/LCI/status/1798725613144191196
Diplomacy
Russians living in Europe have attacked and even killed Ukrainians living in Europe. These Russians were arrested by the Czechs…https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1797607940708532565
Russia will no longer consider the Taliban as a terrorist organization…https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1799048442469384408
A Russian Ukrainian man planned to be a terrorist during the Olympics…https://kyivindependent.com/france-charges-russian-ukrainian-man-over-alleged-terrorist-plot/
If Finland believes that a foreign national acquiring property is not in the state’s interest then the state can acquire the property, even if the sale was already concluded. Estonia is considering similar legislation in which third country nationals must apply before buying property. The law targets Russian and Belarusian nationals that might buy property near sensitive locations…https://news.err.ee/1609364830/estonia-to-stop-third-country-nationals-from-buying-land-near-strategic-facilities
The editor at The Grayzone receives money from both Russia and Iran. Russia and China collaborate in their disinformation campaigns against common enemies and share info and techniques. America’s tolerance for information from foreign agents is a threat to its democracy…https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/06/02/grayzone-russia-iran-support/
Equipment
Rheinmetall is building a plant in Lithuania that will produce “tens of thousands” of shells per year. That’s a fairly small amount but every bit helps…https://mil.in.ua/en/news/rheinmetall-ammunition-plant-to-be-built-in-lithuania/
Rubber armor is used to absorb shrapnel…https://x.com/Cyrusontherun/status/1798480625604956658
A Ukrainian drone was captured intact and the self-destruct mechanism failed…https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1798789862847598800
France is sending Mirage 2000’s to Ukraine. They will also arm and train a 4,500 strong brigade…https://x.com/tweetforAnna/status/1798789524111364140
A list of what the US is sending this round, including 100 M113, anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft weapons…https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1799112897798471721/photo/1
Germany is considering sending a fourth Patriot systems…https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/06/07/bloomberg-germany-weighs-sending-ukraine-fourth-patriot-air-defense-system/
New radars and missiles are needed to turn NASAMS into an anti-ballistic missile systems, as well. Norway plans to do it in five years…https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1799183444246753421
During the cold war, self-propelled artillery trained to conduct a fire mission and then use rapid displacement to move out of the area to avoid counter battery fire. Their greatest threat to detection was the counter battery radar that could track a mortar or artillery shell to their point of origin. In this war, movement is often detected by drones so there is an advantage to digging in and letting the defensive position and screens protect an artillery piece from artillery shells and drones.
When Ukraine conducts counter battery fire, though, it has to move to within 3-10 km of the front line and they are very vulnerable to drone attacks. They are not escorted by anti-drone weapons and, unlike FPV drones, Zalas and Lancets are very resilient in an EW environment. Constantine’s volunteer group has built screens on their first SPG. Unlike the turtle tank’s protection that removes much of the gun’s functionality, these screens don’t interfere with the gun’s operational capabilities, but that means it isn’t fully protected, either. Still, they are going to find out if it helps in any way…https://x.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1798410875209965813
This six-month-old report says that the US will double the production of HIMARS vehicles from 48 to 96, and will double the production of M1 tanks to 30-40 a month to meet the demands of Poland and other nations that ordered these vehicles. Javelin production will increase from 2,100 per year to 3,960 by 2026, plus it will be built overseas to help meet worldwide demand. Stingers will increase production by 50% to 60 a month by 2025. An Iowa plant that fills shell casings with explosives received $1.2 billion to expand operations. Back in December it was filling 22,000 shells a month, double its previous rate. And two Pennsylvania plants received $120 million to modernize production and open another production line at one of those plants…https://www.hudson.org/defense-strategy/helping-ukraine-forcing-united-states-produce-more-weapons-rebeccah-heinrichs
Shell Casing Production Technology
Artillery shells undergo tremendous stresses when fired and the metal casing needs to be strong, durable and flexible. After the iron ore is smelted and impurities are removed and carbon, chromium, nickel and molybdenum are added. Then the standard production method is to heat the ingot or slug to very high temperatures, press it into shape and then cool it down. The Scranton, Pennsylvania plant increased its production level to 36,000 shells per month using a combination of robotics and century-old techniques like this. The site employs 300 people.
A new $500 million facility was built in Mesquite, Texas and production began less than ten months after construction began. Three buildings have three production lines that will eventually create 30,000 shells a month when completed. The modern production lines only require 150 employees and utilizes flow forming instead of pressing at high temperatures to create the casings.
Flow forming has been used to create components for aerospace and other industries but the Turkish company of Repkon patented a way to create artillery casings with this method. Flow forming uses spinning and pressing to shape metal. A water pail can be created from a flat disc of metal, similar to how a potter might create a bowl. Here is a video of wheels being shaped and none of the metal is being cut away.
This method reduces the number of steps needed to create a shell casing and provides better tolerances, reduces raw material waste, and improves molecular grain structure properties. Repkon says they produce a 122 mm shell casing in less than three minutes. Flow forming is the state of the technology.
Thank you for your continued reporting.
Thanks Don!
No more buildings in Krynki but are there any ZSU troops? Have they withdrawn as announced?