With input from Tom Cooper
Kursk
Russian bloggers report that Ukrainian activity was reduced as the week went along and that most of their drone activity at night had stopped. Groups of Ukrainian infantry that pulled back were hunted by Russian drones and their artillery shelled Ukrainian positions, such as in the village of Gogolevka. Russia advanced near Guyevo, Gogolevka, and are pressing to stay in Basivka once they reach it with their small assaults.
After taking control of the Sudzha border checkpoint and gas metering and pumping station the pumping station caught fire again. Russia blamed both instances on Ukraine failing to stop attacks on Russian infrastructure. Ukraine says Russia caused the destruction.
Russian attacks on Basivka are met by drones. The drone attacks are taking place in the village itself.
Another 170 mm artillery piece was destroyed (fifth over the last 7-10 days). North Korea sent 100 more along with 3000 more soldiers.
Two Russian missiles hit a road crossing on the international border.
There have been many instances of Ukrainian troops staying too long in salients and Kursk is just another one on the list. Butosov says the Ukrainian army prepared a withdrawal plan but never executed in January because of the political decision to hold on to Sudzha and exchange it for something in the peace talks. An MP from Zelensky’s party said that a law provides commanders and chiefs with immunity from decisions made on the battlefield. He also believes that Zelensky assesses and makes some decisions but did not directly insist that Sudzha be held.
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Generally, relatively ‘little’ is going on around other sectors of the battlefield in Ukraine. RUMINT has it that the Russian offensive run out of steam, but they are already re-grouping with intention of re-launching it as soon as the soil is firm enough to do so. On the Ukrainian side, there is remarkably little talk about the re-organisation of the ZSU: apparently, this is coming forward in serious fashion only in regards of the 3rd Assault Brigade, i.e. the related corps. That said, there re no details in this regards. Of course, the GenStab in Kyiv is still ‘doing a lot’ to improve the training of newly-mobilised troops, which is why the number of troops that are ‘AWOL’ (absent without leave) remains high.
Belgorod
Russian video of drone attacks and artillery attacks on Ukrainian targets in Demidovka. A Ukrainian vehicle is attacked in Popovka and a Ukrainian-occupied house is attacked in Demidovka. Ukrainian infantry encounter a mine dropped by a drone in the Ukrainian village of Marine on the border. A Russian van drives past a burning armored vehicle 5 km north of Demidovka. Russia also dropped at least eight bombs on Popovka.
60 km from the front lines, four Russian helicopters were destroyed by HIMARS.
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Kharkiv
Small-scale Russian attacks still happen in Vovchansk. Here is one in the wasteland. Usually, any advances they make in the rubble are eventually eliminated by drones. 4500 meters north of the town, the 113th Brigade uses drones to finish off a pair of abandoned MT-LBs.
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Kupiansk
Ukrainian drones attack Russsian-occupied houses in Dvorichna. A Ukrainian MRAP is destroyed 1800 meters to the west of the village. There were no further advances in the Kamianka sector but the Russians advanced a little more than a kilometer by Orlianka.
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Terny
The Russians have consolidated their hold on Terny and advanced over four kilometers towards Katerynivka. Such a narrow penetration might be very vulnerable to a counterattack, but recent experiences show that Ukraine has very limited abilities to do so in this sector. In fact, if Ukraine had enough troops in this sector Russia probably wouldn’t be making any advances at all, but infantry is in short supply - and that’s not going to change as long as the frontline remains as ‘irregular’, principally because Kyiv remains insistent on ‘no step back’ idea.
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Chasiv Yar
The intensity of the combat is lower - unless you are the target. The drones of the 5th Assault Brigade fly in the canal pipes and maintain their signal. A bunker is hit, as well. Ukrainian positions are continuously targeted, as well. A Russian armored vehicle is destroyed 2 km from the front lines.
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Toretsk
The fighting remains intense and the maps remain unchanged. A Ukrainian airstrike hits a high-rise and their artillery shells the stands of a stadium. 800 meters west of the stadium, the Ukrainians noticed Russian forces gathering in a building. With a HMMWV providing covering fire, two soldiers placed anti-tank mines in the building. After they drove away, the mines exploded and the building collapsed. Russian motorcycles aren’t safe in a building.
The Russians conduct an assault in southeast Toretsk.
This is footage of a small battle in Toretsk back in July. The assault team mentions some coordination issues with their support and transport teams. They also run across an old lady somehow surviving on her own in the rubble.
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Pokrovsk
Traffic between Novotroitske and Zhovte is constantly interdicted by Ukrainian drones making it difficult to bring in replacement and supplies. Ukrainian attacks on Solone and Shevchenko made progress and Kotlyne is under pressure, as well. Russian forces between those villages are under constant attack from drones.
An M113 is attacked west of Uspenivka.
Ukrainians successfully evacuate four wounded soldiers near Kotlyne while under drone and mortar attack.
Drones from the 155th Brigade hit Russian infantry in Shevchenko, and Russian drones hit houses in the village occupied by Ukrainians.
A Russian airstrike attacked what they claimed was a drone team 2 km north of Lysivka.
A Russian R-330Zh “Zhitel” EW vehicle was destroyed by a missile.
We’ve seen Russian wounded being sent back to the front on crutches before. You can only do that if you have at least one functional leg and foot. If both feet are hurt, you need a wheelchair, as a drone from the 25th Brigade observes.
Three Russian vehicles were moving to assault Ukrainian positions outside the village of Sribne when drones from the 72nd Brigade destroyed one of the vehicles. The infantry was dropped off at a treeline west of Novoandriivka, 1500 meters behind the front line, while the surviving vehicles retreated. A second assault dropped off more infantry. The infantry didn’t want to advance so the vehicle fired on them before withdrawing and being destroyed by a drone. A total of four assaults were defeated.
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Andriivka
Russian artillery pounds Vesele and Ukrainian positions 3 km northwest of Rozdolne. Russian forces made it into Kostiantynopil and Rozlyv before being eliminated. Russian drones attacked Ukrainian targets in Kostiantynopil, and Rozdolne was blasted by thermobaric rockets.
Odradne and Bahatry were blasted by rockets.
Three Russian vehicles were destroyed during one attack on Kostiantynopil.
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Zaporizhzhia
Russia was able to advance another kilometer: a Russian assault reached Shcherbaky.
Russia
The rate at which Russian tanks are being restored from storage has dropped by almost four times in comparison to the rate from 2022. This reflects the fact that the remaining tanks in storage are in very poor condition. 2000 tanks that were in hangars and protected from the weather were the first to be restored, and 2069 tanks in open storage have also been restored.
Those restored tanks represent 54% of the tanks that can be restored, but from February 2024 to February 2025 only 342 tanks were removed from storage and repaired. The rate of restoration was 120 vehicles per month in 2022; 90 per month in 2023, and 44-75 per month in 2024. At that point the repairs no longer kept pace with the losses. As of this year, only 30-35 tanks are being restored each month.
From 2022 to 2024, only 164 T-90M tanks were produced. Tank losses declined from 300-400 per month (Sep-Nov 2024) to 200-240 a month (Dec 2024-January 2025). Because there are fewer armored vehicles, Russia is using more civilian cars in assaults.
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Ukraine
82% of Ukrainians believe that they should keep fighting under any circumstances, even if the US ends support. 8% would be more likely to surrender if the US stops support.
The 3rd Assault Brigade is now officially the anchor brigade of the 3rd Army Corps. The corps commander, former 3rd Brigade commander Beletsky, discussed the goals of the 3rd Corps. There’s still no word on the other brigades that will be part of the corps.
Ukraine says that one company can produce 1.4 million drones a year and a total of 150 companies can produce 5 million drones a year but the lack of funding prevents them from producing their full capacity. The source here says 2 million drones were produced last year and they will buy 4.5 million drones this year, 30,000 of which are to be long-ranged drones.
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Diplomacy
Trump is ignorant and volatile, seemingly unaware of when Putin is mocking him while he arranges favorable terms for Russia while negotiating a ceasefire. But something Russia did finally irritated him. Despite Trump calling Zelensky a “dictator without election”, he says he is very angry and pissed off after Putin said Zelensky is not a legitimate leader. “If I feel, if we’re in the midst of a negotiation, you could say that I was very angry, pissed off, when Putin said yesterday that — you know, when Putin started getting into Zelensky’s credibility, because that’s not going in the right location, you understand?”
Trump said he also “was pissed off” about Putin’s comments about temporary governance and that his anger about Putin’s comments had been made known to Moscow.
He might be angry at yet another potential delay in the ceasefire negotiations that no one wants. “But new leadership means you’re not gonna have a deal for a long time, right? If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump said.
The US position has evolved from Democrats and mainstream Republicans supporting Ukraine for “as long as it takes”, to Trump saying he can settle the war in one day, to his administration working on a peace deal that will satisfy Russia “as long as it takes.” In fact, a peace deal that might be satisfactory to one side is unacceptable to the other side, but no one wants to openly oppose Trump’s efforts.
The latest charade is Putin saying he accepts a peace deal, but only if sanctions are lifted. The EU said they will only consider lifting sanctions once Russia has withdrawn from Ukraine. The US could still unilaterally lift some sanctions, such as allowing Russian banks to rejoin the SWIFT network used to exchange money during trades. That would be a tremendous relief for Russia and another major benchmark in a US withdrawal from European alliances.
A scientist in Russia protested the invasion in its opening days and was arrested. She fled to Georgia and then the United States to continue her research on genomes at Harvard Medical School. Upon returning from a trip to France, she was arrested at the airport, her visa was revoked and was told she would be deported to Russia. She is being held in a for-profit prison in Louisiana. She had not made any political statements. Her crime was bring back frog embryo samples for her boss, which was legal, but she made a mistake on the paperwork. Weeks earlier, a French scientist was denied entry because a search of his phone had a message critical of Trump.
Last week, the Trump administration cancelled a contract that tracked Ukrainian children that were kidnapped by Russia. There was concern that the data collected was lost but the contractor decided to preserve the data despite lack of guidance from the State Department. Bi-partisan and conservative Christian support for the project forced a Trump reversal that will fund the project for six weeks which will give them time to transfer the data to Europol to help the EU law enforcement agency prosecute the crimes. Researchers are hoping that Europe will fund the project so they can continue to track the children and gather new data.
A group of both Republican and Democratic senators want Trump to send frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Of the $300 billion frozen assets, the US has $7 billion in their control and most of the rest is in Europe’s control. Congress gave approval to do so in 2024 but Biden didn’t because of the resistance of western leaders to take such action. Trump also has not done so.
American defense companies are considering moving to Europe to bypass Trump’s policies.
Sweden’s defense spending will reach 3.5% of their GDP by 2030. They are creating two new brigades that will be operational by 2028. Eight Swedish Archer artillery systems and a Swedish counter-battery radar have been used by the 45th Brigade since November 2023. Sweden will send 18 more, plus five counter-battery radars, as well as help produce Ukraine’s Bogdana self-propelled howitzers.
Under pressure from the US and other organizations, Panama will revoke the registration of 128 sanctioned ships from Russia and Iran. This is in addition to the 70 ships that were already removed from their registry.
Greenland’s prime minister described the visit by the US vice president’s wife and national security advisor as “highly aggressive”. And then Vance himself decided to come. “We are now at a level where it can in no way be characterized as a harmless visit from a politician's wife,” PM Egede said, according to Greenland’s Sermitsiaq newspaper. “What is the national security adviser doing in Greenland? The only purpose is to demonstrate power over us.”
US officials went door to door asking if anyone wanted to meet with the vice president’s wife. Everyone politely declined. The trip was ultimately shortened to a visit to a remote US base where they could avoid the public outcry and protest from the citizens of Greenland. The official government reason is that when the vice president decided to join his wife, a longer trip didn’t fit into his schedule.
Denmark supports Greenland’s independence whenever they decide to take that step. Trump questions Denmark’s claim on Greenland with his usual grasp of historical facts. “A boat landed there 200 years ago or something. And they say they have rights to it,” Trump said. “I don’t know if that’s true. I don’t think it is, actually.”
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European Defense Industries
The EU nations are planning to spend up to €800 billion on defense. They will loan up to €150 billion to member states. Friendly states that are not part of the EU can participate in weapon purchases. This includes Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Moldova, South Korea, Japan, Albania and North Macedonia. As EU candidates, Turkey and Serbia could possibly join. If the UK establishes a defense and security partnership then it could also join the defense program. Canada is very interested, and there has been talk about Australia, New Zealand and India joining.
65% of the components must be European, which includes Ukraine and Norway. The money will not be spent on weapons systems where a non-EU country controls construction or use. That would exclude joint ventures that produce US equipment in the EU. Non-EU countries will not be allowed access to classified information.
Prioritizing spending within the EU will strengthen their defense industries and reduce reliance on outside entities, such as the US.
“If you keep punching your allies in the face, eventually they’re going to stop wanting to buy weapons from you,” said a Western European defense official. “Right now we have limited options outside of US platforms, but in the long run? That could change in the coming decades if this combativeness keeps up.”
In 2024, foreign military sales reached $317 billion. If Washington loses buyers it could eventually weaken the US defense industry.
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Equipment
Ukraine built a missile with a 700 km range, a speed of 700 kph and has 70% of the parts produced domestically. It’s called the Peklo. They’ve built 100 missiles in three months and will ramp up production. They’ve been used in combat five times by December and are constantly being upgraded to withstand EW attacks and to increase accuracy.
In October 2022, Czechia and Ukraine agreed to develop defense programs that benefited both countries. One of the products of that agreement is the Troll Satellite, built by Czechia, that will generate imagery with a five meters per pixel and use AI to analyze other parts of the spectrum. It can detect disturbances in the ground, vegetation and the water, monitor energy or heat sources or detect the presence of chemical and biological material. It also has a LIDAR to map and track satellites in Earth orbit that could impact Czechia and its allies.
Five DRAK satellites will be launched between 2026 and 2030 specifically for the Ukrainian military. It will generate imagery with one meter per pixel and the on board AI will only transmit relevant data to a Czech control station instead of every image.
This 155 mm factory was opened in Texas last May. It’s expected to produce 100,000 shells per month using Türkiye-made robots. Only 300 people are needed for all aspects of the plant, including non-production jobs.
Saab built an anti-drone weapon system with a machine gun and off the shelf parts in 84 days.
The 47th Brigade received the first towed 155 mm howitzer. Estimates from a year ago says it costs $1.5 million compared to the $2.5 million self-propelled version, and is believed to exceed 10 tons. By comparison, the M777 cost $3.7 million in 2017 and weighs 4.2 tons.
Thanks for your work mr hill!
> She is being held in a for-profit prison in Louisiana. She had not made any political statements. Her crime was bring back frog embryo samples for her boss, which was legal, but she made a mistake on the paperwork.
Thanks for this. I had not seen it. Unbelievable.