Ukraine Update

Intro and Input by Tom Cooper

Hello everybody!

While most of Ukrainian official- and unofficial outlets are boasting about having stopped the Russian advance, pilots of Ukrainian fighter-bombers meanwhile have to take risks to strike a bridge 7km north-west of Pokrovsk.

Leaves me wondering why destroying a bridge ‘used by the Russians for their attacks’ well outside the town, if the town is still ‘contested’.

Must be my incompetence, and the resulting inability to analyse this war. The same issues like when watching a video showing an Ukrainian F-16-pilot using the M61A1 Vulcan autocannon to shot down a Russian Geran attack-UAV (video-still below), and reading reports about the better part of Ukrainian MIM-104 Patriot and SAMP-T SAM-batteries standing idle for most of the last two weeks. All because they’re out of replacement missiles…

…and are short even on APKWS II laser-guided rockets, a few of which have reached Ukraine back in early December, as ‘confirmed’ by the following video still (showing LAU-131/A 7-round launchers installed on one of PSU’s F-16AMs, together with a suitable targeting system):

With this… well, that’s about ‘introduction’ for this morning. Me thinks, this is perfectly enough, saying everything left to say right now.

Over to Don.

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Sumy

The (much-announced, at least in Russia) biiiiiiiiiig offensive didn’t really take place. Indeed, there was no movement north of Sumy. As mentioned a week ago, though: there has been a slowly increasing Russian incursion 45 km southeast of Sumy.

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Vovchansk

There was no reported movement in the front lines.

The UAV-unit of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade, ZSU - established with help of your donations for the Rickshaws for the ZSU - used several drones to destroy a TOS-1, causing a nice little detonation…

A Buk air defense system was destroyed in Belgorod with what appears to be a BONUS 155 mm shell. The round was designed to destroy tanks. The BONUS round with base bleed (see below) has a timed fuse ejects two submunitions over the target area. Each submunition has winglets that spins the round as it descends. While spinning, it uses IR and LIDAR sensors to spot a vehicle. Once a vehicle is detected, the submunition fires an explosively formed projectile (a kind of a shaped charge) that penetrates the weak top armor of a vehicle. Two different targets can be potentially hit, as seen here in a demonstration video.

The PzH2000 was used to fire the BONUS 155 mm shell in 2023. Its longer barrel can fire base bleed rounds up to 35 km. The CAESAR howitzer also has a long barrel. It would have to be located within 14 km of the Russian border to hit the Buk air defense system.

The flat base of an artillery shell creates aerodynamic drag on an artillery shell. Base bleed shells expel gas while the shell is in flight, reducing its drag and extending the range of the shell by 20-35%.

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Kupiansk

Yes, sure: there are still a few Russians inside Kupiansk, and they are attacked. There were a lot of Russian airstrikes and bombardents throughout the sector. Ukraine conducted an airstrike in Petropavilivka, which is usually reserved for larger concentrations of troops or enemy UAV-teams.

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Lyman

The 81st Airmobile Brigade destroyed 11 artillery systems and other targets in the Serebryany forest last week.

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Sloviansk

A Ukrainian towed 122 mm gun is hit. Ukrainian forces in Nykyforivka are attacked.

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Kostiantynivka

The flow of Russian troops into the edge of the city remains heavy.

Russian targets are hit. A Ukrainian tank is destroyed.

A Ukrainian soldier was captured in the gray zone by two Russians, one of which was severely wounded. After the Russians received no help, the wounded Russian died and the survivor asked his Ukrainian prisoner to contact his side for evacuation.

Two Russians decided to surrender and a Russian drone kills one of them.

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Pokrovsk

Four Ukrainians were captured by seven Russians. More than ten Ukrainian drones killed, incapacitated or distracted the Russians and allowed the captive Ukrainians to escape.

Three Russian vehicles, including a captured M113, used the fog to approach Hryshynyne but were destroyed.

A Russian hanger of vehicles and horses is discovered. A Russian self-propelled gun is destroyed.

Huliaipole

The Russians entered Prydorozhnie and Staroukrainka.

…which is no surprise considering this is just one of the sectors where two Ukrainian ‘brigades’ (read: effectively, that’s ‘two reinforced companies’) have to defend a 30-kilometres wide stretch with 400 troops each…

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Zaporizhzhia

The Russians loss of Starlink communications led to a Russian assault group of 12 men being destroyed by another Russian position that thought they were Ukrainian troops.

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Occupied Territories

In best traditions of the System Putin, Chechen units are taking over successful businesses in Tokmak by force.

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Unknown Locations

At various places along the front, the HUR Prymary unit destroyed six Russian air defense assets.

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Russia

The EU is considering eliminating the oil cap price system and banning services to all ships transporting Russian oil, which includes repair and insurance for Russian oil tankers. Without tankers, Russian oil could only flow through pipelines. The sanctions package would also impact banks and previously unsanctioned goods, services and raw materials needed for war. The elimination of oil tanker transport alone would be a massive blow to their economy, if implemented and enforced.

China currently receives 40% of its Russian oil imports through pipelines. China doesn’t need as much oil as they are importing but they were stockpiling cheap oil and that will likely continue in 2026.

India agreed not to buy any Russia oil in exchange for Trump decreasing tariffs on India to 18%. Before Russia’s open invasion India bought very little Russian oil. Coincidentally, India just seized three sanctioned tankers outside of its territorial waters. These tankers had been carrying Iranian oil. India has a three year history of accepting sanctioned Russian oil from tankers. In the first nine months of 2025, 30 ships unloaded their oil in India.

Russia is offering China discounts of $12/barrel. Chinese state refineries stopped accepting Russian oil due to sanctions. Smaller independent refineries still buy Russian oil.

Unless Russian state refineries start using Russian oil, Chinese demand will likely continue, but not rise. If true, Russian sale of oil, even at discounted prices, will fall.

There are already many sanctions in place that have varying degrees of enforcement. If they were completely enforced then Russia could not build their missiles, UMPK bombs or other weapons and equipment. Finland and France released tankers they seized because of their laws even though there was overwhelming evidence that the seized ships destroyed cables and carried oil for a nation that invaded a neighbor in violation of international law. After signing a resolution to seize more tankers using false flags, dozens of such tankers have sailed through their waters.

The rule of law is the what stops the strong from invading their smaller neighbors. Laws only have meaning if they are enforced with consequences when they are breached. Writing laws that protects nations from aggression instead of enabling aggressive nations takes effort and intent. Enforcing these laws takes resources and intent. Releasing ships that have obviously broken laws and failing to enforce existing sanctions are indications of the level of intent western nations have to stop international aggression.

A month ago, the US seized a vessel that changed its registration to Russian while being chased. It was also escorted by a Russian submarine. Trump did not seize this tanker in support of Ukraine, but as part of his Venezuelan dominion. Despite Russia publically asking the US not to seize the tanker, Russia has not reacted to the seizure.

After a request from Ukraine’s Defense Minister, SpaceX lowered the speed that Starlink terminals can operate to 75 kph or less, which would prevent Russian drones from using them to for real-time control and higher effectiveness. Ukraine provided a list of its Starlink terminals. Russia is working on a solution to re-establish internet access. Operations have been reduced as Russia adjusts to alternative communication networks. If Russia cannot re-establish or find alternate internet access then the attacks will continue but it’s OODA Loop will increase and it will respond to events a slower rate. They still have radios for communications with front line units.

In the week without Starlink, the number of attacks actually increased.

In Tver, a chemical plant that produces fuel for missiles was attacked by Ukrainian UAVs.

A substation in Belgorod was attacked by HIMARS, another one was destroyed in Volgograd by drones.

Russia fired their Oreshnik ballistic missiles from the Kapustin Yar test range, about 600 km from the front lines in Ukraine. Ukraine said they fired five Flamingo missiles at the site. 600 km is the longest known Flamingo mission to date and still well short of its stated 3000 km range. The Flamingo uses an inertial navigation system and GPS signals to correct the inevitable slight deviation from the navigation system. In its limited use, there were some concerns about accuracy even though it claimed an error radius of no more than 14 meters. With its 1150 kg warhead, it can potentially damage a target up to 100 meters away. The Oreshnik launch site is over 20 km from any civilian structures.

Oreshnik missiles have only been used twice and each of the 36 submunitions have a 50% chance of landing within 200 meters of their aiming point. There’s no evidence that the Flamingos have done any damage against the little-used Oreshnik missile site.

There are plenty of targets that are producing weapons that are doing a lot of damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure.

A lieutenant general in Russia’s GRU was shot in Moscow and is now in a hospital. The buildings CCTV hasn’t worked in a while. Vladimir Alekseyeve was involved in Syria and was closely related to Wagner and other mercenary units. He was involved in negotiations with Prigozhin after Wagner mutinied. He was also associated with the Espanola brigade that was disbanded after the FSB assassinated its leader.

Russia’s former Deputy Justice Minister drowned in his bathtub.

An S-400 system that was destroyed in 2022 was finally recorded as such last week.

In December 2025, Russia conscripted 27,400 soldiers and had 33,200 killed and wounded. This is the first time that losses exceeded conscriptions. In November 2025, the Russians suffered 31,000 losses and conscripted 33,300 people. In October 2025, they had 31,500 losses and 35,600 new conscriptions. This was just one month and is not a trend. If Russian losses continually exceeded their conscriptions, it would slowly eliminate their ability to attack. Russian conscription relies on large bonuses. Ukraine has a goal of consistently killing and wounding 50,000 Russians a month but that remains an aspiration.

In January, 30,618 Russians were killed and 22,000 Russians were conscripted. Also in January, Andrew Perpetua saw 1,091 pickups, 193 SUV’s, 146 vans, 65 cars and 11 Ladas destroyed by Ukrainians. There is no doubt more destroyed that he didn’t see on videos.

Since 2022, Russia suffered 1.2 million casualties, of which 300,000 were dead.

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Ukraine

Any terminal in Ukraine that was not on that list was deactivated. Unregistered Ukrainian terminals were also cut off but are regaining connectivity once registered in an ongoing effort. Civilian terminals that are already registered are still operating. Some Starlinks owned by Ukrainian units were bought with private funds and they were not registered out of fear that the government might claim them. Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, advisor to the Defense Minister, assured everyone that the registration is needed for the terminals to regain functionality and the terminals will not be confiscated.

Ukrainian nuclear power plants had to reduce output because of the instability of the electrical infrastructure. They requested emergency energy from Poland.

Ukrainians were polled on their state of mind:

● 52% of respondents categorically reject the proposal to transfer the entire Donbas to Russia in exchange for security guarantees (ready to accept – 40%). There were no significant changes compared to mid-January;

● Only 20% of Ukrainians expect the war to end in the coming weeks or at least in the first half of 2026;

● 65% say they are willing to endure war for as long as necessary (in December 2025 – 62%, in September 2025 – 62%);

● 88% believe that by attacking the energy sector, Russia is trying to leave Ukrainians without electricity and heat and force them to surrender;

● 90% believe that Ukraine should strike at Russian territory. Of these, 80% believe that Ukraine should strike not only at military infrastructure, but also at other facilities;

● 66% expect that in 10 years Ukraine will be a prosperous EU member state (in December 2025 – 64%).

After conducting numerous asymmetrical operations in Russia and even in Somalia, Ukraine said they will develop units to conduct asymmetrical operations in Russia.

Ukraine probably suffered 550,00 casualties, of which maybe 120,000-160,000 were killed. Zelensky claims that only 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed.

Trump claimed that Putin agreed not to attack energy system of Ukraine for one week. Russia never stopped attacking. Trump said Putin kept his word. No one is surprised by the Russian attacks or Trump’s lies.

No one is surprised when a Russian drone hits a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia and injures two women. No one is surprised when a Russian drone hits a bus in Dnipro and kills 15 people.

Over the last 10 days, a confectionary warehouse was destroyed in the Kyiv region, and over a dozen power plants and substations were severely damaged. The number of homes without power and the length of power outages increased.

A son was captured by the Russian invaders and the father attended every prisoner exchange for three years hoping his son would be among those freed, and it finally happened.

A Ukrainian mother was told her son was missing in 2022, then captured, but in 2023 they were given a badly burned body that supposedly matched the DNA she provided. They held a funeral for that body. Then last September a Ukrainian prisoner that was released said her son was alive. Finally, on the last prisoner exchange, she received a phone call from her son.

Diplomacy

Estonia detained the container ship Baltic Spirit in its territorial waters. It is not sanctioned but is suspected of smuggling.

Sanctioned oil tankers often transfer their oil to non-sanctioned tankers while at sea. They do so in the hopes obscuring the origin of sanctioned oil. Malaysia boarded and released two tankers while they were transfering oil. The company representatives for the tankers were required to attend a court hearing at a later date.

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner don’t wear a suit at the Abu Dhabi peace talks. JD Vance was not on hand to complain nor laugh about it.

A Polish/German man that was involved with NATO and US contracts was arrested in Poland at the request of the US and accused of bribery. He will potentially be extradited to the US.

When Bezos bought The Washington Post in 2013 he promised to maintain the newspaper’s core values and editorial independenc and usher in a golden era by investing in its future. Prior to the 2024 election, he canceled the paper’s endorsement of Harris. A political cartoonist resigned after the newspaper refused to publish a satirical cartoon of Bezos. Bezos was among the billionaires that attended Trump’s inauguration. Last week, the paper laid off one-third of its staff, including all Middle East correspondents and editors and a reporter that was in Ukraine.

The dollar was worth 64 Cuban pesos in July 2021. It’s now worth 460 Cuban pesos. Cuba’s exports fell from $1.6 billion to $994 million in 2024. It’s GDP fell from $91 billion in 2016 to $12 billion in 2024. Tourism is the government’s main source of foeign exchange and has dropped 70% since 2018. Dependent on oil from Venezuela, Russia and Mexico, Trump cut off the Venezuelan source. Trump pressured Mexico to stop sending oil. Mexico’s state oil company said it intended to uphold its contract with Cuba, but Mexico’s president canceled January’s shipment to Cuba and said they would send other types of aid instead. Russia said they will continue to send oil. If true, it will be another potential conflict between Trump and Putin. Cuba imports 60% of the oil it consumes and uses fuel oil to generate electricity. The fuel shortage resulted in 20-hour blackouts in many parts of the country, impacting refrigeration of food and medicine. Cuba may have less than 20 days of fuel left.

Cuba accuses the US of conducting an energy blockade. The US sent $3 million in disaster relief for hurricane Melissa earlier and will send $6 million more.

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Equipment

As of 2023, the Gepard has been effective over 80% of the time - against any cruise missiles or drones entering its 4000 meter range. It has been one of the most effective defenses against drones. The problem is that there are just over a hundred of them in service in Ukraine and they have such a short range for air defense. In this regards, there is only minimal difference between 50-years-old Gepards and brand-new, super-advanced Skyshields.

Germany will deploy 100 satellites for secure communications and tracking missiles at a cost of €35 billion.

The Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) is launched by HIMARS/MLRS and has a 91 kg warhead, 500 km range, a 6,100 kph speed and a cost of $3.5 million each. They plan to make over 400 missiles a year. The Blackbeard GL missile is also launched by HIMARS/MLRS and is designed to deliver 80% of the PrSM’s capabilities at a significantly reduced price. It is expected to have a 1,000 km range, a 6,100 kph speed, and a cost of hundreds of thousands of dollars per missile. They plan to produce thousands of missiles annually.

The US invited Ukrainian companies to a drone evaluation program. Contracts of $150 million will be awarded.

The Extended Range Attack Munitions (ERAM) is standoff cruise missile developed for Ukraine to be fired from F-16’s and MiG-29s. It is around 220 kgs with a range between 240 and 450 km. It can cruise at altitude as well as follow terrain, and it has some penetration ability by gaining altitude right before impact and flying straight down on the target. It was developed in less than 16 months. 3,350 will be sent to Ukraine at a cost of $250,000 each. Production rate is expected to be 42 missiles a month.

Ukraine has about ten Patriot systems capable of firing the PAC-3 MSE missile. The PAC-3 is a hit-to-kill missile, which is the only kind of missile that can successfully intercept a ballistic missile. Normally, two interceptor missiles are used on an incoming ballistic missile, but Ukraine is so short on ammo that they only use one interceptor missile per incoming missile. Ukraine would need about 60 missiles a month for this minimal rate of use. Lockheed Martin produced 51.6 missiles a month (620 per year) in 2025. Many of these missles went to the US and other countries. Lockheed Martin plans to increase its annual production rate from 620 missiles per year to 2,000 missiles per year but it will take seven years to reach that rate.

Six Russian companies that build the UMPK bomb are not sanctioned. This makes it easier for them to import components from USA, China and Switzerland.

ALM developed the Fury 120, a French interceptor drone with a 1.1 meter wingspan, a speed of 700 kph and able to reach 1000 kph for short distances, and has the ability to withstand 20 G’s while maneuvering. The high speeds limits its operational time to 15-20 minutes. It relies on continuous data from ground-based radars and its own electro-optical sensors to intercept the target. It uses the speed of impact to destroy enemy drones but can also be fitted with a 2 kg warhead. If the interception fails, the drone can be re-used. Its potential cost has not been announced, but it is being marketed as an inexpensive alternative to missiles. Its potential production rate was not disclosed. It has been in development less than a year so far on ALM’s initiative outside the usual governmental process. Testing against simulated targets will begin in the spring or summer.

Ukrspecsystems enhanced its drone cameras with AI, which enhances contrast under normal lighting conditions, reduces contrast in shadowed areas, increases exposure in low-light conditions and improved visibility in foggy environments.

EDIT: ‘just in’ (the photo is some 2-3 days old, though), is an image of the latest Russian glide bomb. The UMPB-5 is actually rocket powered and has a claimed range of 160km. The image is showing two as installed on a Su-34 of the VKS.

A still from a video showing four UMPB-5s powering up, about a second after their release from a Su-34 (notably, two have their wings out and motors burning; the other two are yet to follow in fashion):