Hello everybody!
‘Back on air’ after a few days of full focus on helping prepare few additional books for Helion… ‘but’… well, one simply can’t avoid ‘following developments in Ukraine’.
No, it’s not ‘just because ‘of that successful Ukrainian attack on Marinivka AB outside Volgograd, in which four Su-34s were destroyed while in the process of preparing for a combat mission. Or because of another, similar attack, but this time on the Kirovske AB - a helicopter base on the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula - in which a Pantsyr S1, a Mi-8, a Mi-26, and two Mi-28 helicopters were destroyed. Or because of reports from Russia describing participants of the ‘Tube’ operation in Sudzha dying of cancer ‘en masse’, and then the Ukrainians hitting the HQ of the 346th Spetsnaz, and killing about a dozen of high-ranking GRU officers…
…at least not ‘just because’ of such reports. Much more often, it’s reports like, Ukraine’s victory Plan is dead, killed by Russian nuclear Mind Games.
…and that’s not to talk about this one: Defence in Donetsk Oblast: Vuhledar Tactical Group regularly submitted false Reports - DeepState.
I can’t be any more frank: nothing of this is ‘news’ for anybody reading this blog since longer. At least not since the summer of the last year, when we’ve been reporting, in details, and for weeks and months, about professional military incompetence; about Syrsky’s (Glavcom/Commander-in-Chief Ukrainian Armed Forces/ZSU) successful ignorance of the crisis in this area, resulting in the loss of such an excellent defence position in Vuhledar, accompanied by the decimation of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade, the Mechanised Battalion of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, a battalion of the Territorial Defence etc., etc., etc… Primarily because Syrsky is Zelensky/Yermak’s ‘General of Fantastic News’…
Instead, it’s ‘works as expected’.
In similar fashion, regular - and careful - readers of the Sarcastosuarus are going to recall ‘warnings’ about ‘the West’s’ refusal to support an Ukrainian victory out of fear about possible, imaginary repercussions this could have (including that with ‘a defeated Russia might fall apart’)…
Thus, and as absurd as it sounds (at least to me), the actual question is: what shall we report to you about this war any more - where we’re, regularly, between years (see: ‘Putin’s nuclear threats are a bluff’, back in summer 2022), and nine to ten months (see: Vuhledar catastrophe, and then Zele/Yermak/Syrsky’s command incompetence) ahead of the ‘mainstream’…?
…and that for little else but because of cautious collection of information; sober, objective analysis; and conclusions based on simple logic?
Mind: I’m used to following and analsying dozens of armed conflicts around the Globe - and that for decades already. I’m accustomed to the frustrations caused by the realisation that the mass of armed conflicts is caused by ‘little else’ but incredible stupidity, greed, unsubstantiated prejudices, resulting racism and hatred - and having corresponding results. I’m used to monitoring super-clever zombie idiots modelling the outcome of many wars. To systematic incompetence resulting in genocide, ‘at least’ in suffering of millions. I’m not the least surprised all the zombie idiots in ‘the West’ being outright relieved to distract from their ignorance for Israel’s genocide on Palestinians and the urgent necessity to counter the effects of the global warming - through babbling about ‘5% defence spending’, at least a third of which is, actually going to be spent for anything else but ‘defence’…
But, full revelation: I’ve run out of sarcasm, meanwhile. I haven’t seen a war as screwed up as this one - and that for reasons that can only be described as ‘distilled, pure idiocy’. Hand on heart: a part of me wishes this ‘Ukrainian Nightmare’ would’ve been printed on paper, so I could ‘at least’ squash it, then tear it apart and throw it into that bin patiently waiting in the corner of my study…
(…and I’m certainly not the least surprised, Syrsky does not dare appearing anywhere near the frontlines without wearing a ballistic helmet plus carrier vest with plate…)
***
Kursk/Sumy
14 prisoners were taken from the 810th and 155th Marine brigades, known for killing and beheading Ukrainian prisoners. A special operations squad engaged a Russian squad and killed or captured them. The 73rd Naval Special Operations Center went on patrol.
Ten Russian artillery pieces are attacked by the 8th Regiment SSO, although the timeframe of these attacks was not stated.
Russia used motorcycles to launch an assault on Andriivka. The objective was to reach the village before Ukrainian drones or artillery could react. Failing that, the hope was that the assault was fast enough so the Ukrainian drones couldn’t attack them all so some of them would reach Andriivka. But their movement was detected far enough away that all the soldiers were eliminated, either on the motorcycle or on foot, and none reached the village. Dismounted Russian infantry were also engaged on the southern edge of Oleksiivka.
Russian assault groups were attacked moving through northern and southern Oleksiivka. Over a week ago, 12 Russians surrendered on the northern edge of Andriivka. Ukrainian troops and equipment are attacked entering Andriivka. One Russian drone waits for vehicles on the road, a technique pioneered by Magyar’s Birds in Kherson. Russians are shelled in and around Kindrativka and hit with airstrikes, as well. Three bridges in Yunakivka are hit by the Ukrainian air force.
The new Russian KAB-20 bomb has 17 kg of explosives and can glide 12 km if dropped from an altitude of 4000 meters. It uses inertial navigation with satellite corrections and can also be guided by laser or video sensor. The Forpost-R is a $7 million Russian-made drone manufactured under license from the Israelis that has a range of 250 km and a ceiling of 6000 meters. Two Forpost drones were intercepted, each with them carrying two bombs. One was intercepted 3 km west of Guyevo.
In the first week of March, Russian troops walked over 12 km through an inactive gas pipeline to emerge 5 km behind Ukrainian front lines. They suffered high casualties when they emerged. By the end of the month, survivors were suffering from lung injuries resembling chronic pneumonia. Now there are reports that some survivors have blood clots and cancer and are being paid 100k rubles (less than $1300) for their troubles.
***
Kharkiv
A drone chased 92nd Brigade soldiers down the road until several shotgun blasts finally brought it down.
Ukraine still holds the aggregate plant on the northern bank of the Vovchansk river. Russia keeps sending assault groups of 3-5 men, sometimes up to as many as ten. 4 km south of the river, a Ukrainian 57mm AA gun is hit by a drone.
***
Kupiansk
In November 2024, Russia launched a narrow attack down a pair of railroad tracks that made it all the way into Kupiansk. They were since beaten back and Ukraine prepped the last standing bridge over the small Hnylytsya river for destruction. When Russia conducted another assault that made it to Holubivka and Radkivka, Ukraine decided to blow the bridge with a drone to obstruct any Russian advance down the rail tracks.
The 43rd Brigade finishes off Russian vehicles. A Russian drone hits a Ukrainian vehicle in Petropavlivka, 2 km south of Synkivka. Yet another airstrike on Kupiansk and this time an apartment building was hit.
***
Terny
Syrsky said that Ukraine would be conducting more counter attacks and small scale attacks in the future… and that has been happening in many places on a small scale already, just to maintain the front lines. How kind from him to state something obvious for months already, and then warn the Russians of what is to follow, too - and that in the public…
The 3rd Assault Brigade makes a greater effort to publicize their actions in order to recruit replacements to stay at full strength. At the end of May, the Russians advanced to the small village of Ridkodub and the Terny sector has been static since then despite continued fighting. The 3rd Corps commander, the former 3rd Brigade commander, promised they would start pushing the Russians in this sector back a few months ago. A company from the brigade attacked Ridkodub with the aid of drones from the 66th Brigade and eliminated a Russian platoon in the process. The thick vegetation and buildings provided cover and concealment from the Russian drones. Dense terrain is an advantage for skilled infantry.
A Russian rocket launcher is destroyed 13 km behind the front lines and a D-30 was destroyed 4 km from the front. Russia shelling indicates that there are still Ukrainian positions west of Yampolivka.
***
Toretsk
There was an airstrike on Kostiantynivka, and Russians moving north of Novoolenivka were attacked, but very little territory switched hands in Toretsk and in Siversk to the north.
***
Pokrovsk
This is just one video of some of the sixty airstrikes in the area between Shakhove and Popiv Yar. The airstrikes were on the routes that Ukraine took to supply and reinforce that sector, and Russian advances were limited to that location.
Insulated ponchos block the thermal radiation of the body. If the ground is warmer than the poncho, though, the temperature differential still stands out, even more so in an open field.That was their first mistake. The second mistake they made was lying down so close together that they’re all in the blast zone of a single grenade. The third mistake they made was invading Ukraine. The 59th Brigade just transitioned from a motorized to an assault brigade, joining the 3rd, 5th and 9rd Brigades in having that status. They made sure the Russians wouldn’t make those mistakes again.
The 3rd Special Purpose Regiment operates in the Donetsk Oblast. In the first two months of the war they attacked Russian rear areas. When they received Javelins and NLAWs for the first time their training consisted of watching videos and then they would use them in battle. When they captured weapons, such as mortars, they’d study them for about two days and use them on missions. Like everyone else, they became proficient with the constantly changing capabilities of drones. Whenever they can, they use drones instead of humans. But when they need a prisoner, that becomes a ground operation.
***
Komar
DeepState reports that units in this area are submitting false reports about holding a village or position when they are not. Incomplete or incorrect information certainly makes it more difficult to conduct a proper defense. The responsibility lies not just with the front line units that are lying, but with their superiors, who
a) should not have created the system of lying in reports, first and foremost, and
b) should be aware of lies within a couple of days, through regular tours to inspect different units and other means of gathering information.
In Ukraine, in the ZSU, however, it was nobody less than the General of Fantastic News who has created this system of lies. He has grown it through deploying too many small units into the same sector, and then losing the ability to command and control - which is no surprise because too many disparate battalions are increasing the difficulties of command and control. And, his buddies in the General Staff are bolstering Syrsky’s failures.
A drone hits a North Korean rocket launcher in Prechystivka, 25 km from the front lines. A rocket is triggered and flies through the cab of the vehicle and the flame from the engine flashes through the cab. Two crew members tumble out alive. It is unknown how far away they were when the entire vehicle exploded.
After a heavy bombardment and airstrikes, Russian infantry secured the village of Yalta. And after a heavy bombardment, Russian infantry secured the village of Shevchenko. A camouflaged Ukrainian position in Myrne is hit and the rest of the village is bombarded. Russian rockets bombard the fields 4 km southwest of Komar.
A bridge layer was destroyed by the Mokri Yaly river near Vesele. A HUMMWV was destroyed near Shevchenko.
***
Zaporizhzhia
The June 22nd attack on a Russian fuel train involved the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group (OSU), the Zaporizhzhia Tactical Group, the State Special Communications Service’s Next Group, the Security Service’s Alpha unit, the 65th Brigade and the Defense Intelligence’s Kabul 9 unit. They released a video of the attack. Here’s another video from a reconnaissance drone.
Three different angles of a Ukrainian drone being destroyed by the rail line in Tokmak.
A two story building in Nesterianka is reduced to a single story by a Ukrainian airstrike. Malynivka is shelled by the Russians.
***
Kherson
Ukraine still has a presence in Dachi on the southern end of the Antonivka bridge.
In the 70s and 80s, trees were planted to prevent the Oleshky Sands from spreading. The Russians used the trees near Novaya Mayachka as an organizational site 15 km from the Dnieper river. Last week the Ukrainian air force bombed it. Russian targets on the left bank were also attacked.
KABs have a range of about 70 km. The Grom-E1 is a glide bomb with an engine. It has a 315 kg warhead with a range of 120 km if dropped at an altitude of 12 km and a range of 35 km if dropped at an altitude of 5 km. Grom’s have been used before but one was shot down near Dnipro, gliding over 100 km for the first time.
A Russian boat was destroyed off the west coast of Kherson. One of the drones used in the attack was the Turkish-built TB-2 Bayraktar. The TB-2 was important in the opening months of the war for dropping munitions and spotting targets for artillery fire and inspired a song. When defensive lines were formed Russian air defenses started shooting them down and Ukraine lost 26 of them in 2022-23. At $5 million each they were too expensive to replace, especially since cheaper drones were developed to perform the same functions. They were withdrawn from front line service and only used in areas where they knew it was safe from air defenses. The fact that they were used in an operation in Kherson indicates Russian air defenses were absent.
A 72-minute documentary of Kherson citizens describing the invasion and the occupation that smelled of burnt skin and hair. They waited in long lines for bread, risking their lives for food because of the checkpoints and patrols that were arresting people, interrogating, torturing and killing them. Children were evacuated, they were confiscated for health improvement and sent to Russia, and they were smuggled to safety. Kherson became part of Russia, by proclamation, but was liberated soon after. The Russians destroyed and stole what they could before they left. A week after liberation, the Russians started shelling indiscriminately. Aerial bombs followed. The Russians destroyed the Kakhovka dam and flooded the land. Attempts to rescue flood victims on the left bank were met with Russian gunfire. They supplied some people with water by drones. Then the Russians started stalking people with drones. The human safari happens every day. Some day, the left bank will be liberated and they will have peace.
In the meantime, the human safari continues.
***
Mykolaiv
For the fifth time since March, a Ukrainian training center was hit, this time by a drone. Only one person was wounded since the site was following safety protocols.
***
Crimea
Four radars and a launcher - all part of a S-400 air defense system of the Russian Air-Space Force (VKS) - were destroyed during the same Ukrainian strike (it’s always funny to read resulting commentary in India, where ‘nothing of this kind can happen: Indian S-400s are so much better…and then they’re going to get the Russian S-500s as next, which are even better….)
***
Black Sea
Junior naval officers had been reportedly sabotaging ships and subs to prevent them from conducting operations. Now there is evidence that senior officers may be skimming money off the continual repairs and are repairing ships that should be decommissioned.
After Russian jets and helicopters were shot down by naval drones, Russia started engaging the naval drones with Lancet and Kh-31 missiles.
***
Baltic Sea
A shadow fleet tanker that was escorted by a Russian warship in the Mediterranean and English strait sailed through the Baltic Sea unchallenged and into Russian waters.
***
Occupied Territories
The Peklo jet drone has been used in the Luhansk region. It has a range of 700 km and can fly 700 kph.
***
Unknown Location
Somewhere in the south, Ukrainian drones detected movement of what they say is a drone team, a target that is worth an airstrike.
***
Russia
As all of NATO (except Spain) pledge to increase their defense spending to 5%, Russia is spending 7.2% of its GDP on the military. Putin admitted that defense spending led to inflation and Russia’s GDP growth will be slower this year. He also said Russia will reduce defense spending for the next three years. The leader of Russia’s Central Bank said the country ran out of spare labor, industrial capacity is idle and two-thirds of the reserve currency has been spent. Russia’s largest steel and mining company warned of possible large-scale bankruptcies due to high interest rates and falling demand. The interest rates are high to fight inflation but they make it difficult to take out loans and remain profitable.
A company that built microelectronics is on the verge of bankruptcy and stopped production operations. The price of the components is set by the military and the company cannot refuse to produce at those prices or they would be sanctioned by the government. The fate of the company is uncertain.
Ukraine says that between January and May, Ukrainian strikes caused $1.3 billion in damages to Russian industrial facilities and infrastructure and $9.5 billion in disruption to industrial activities, such as oil refining, fuel and lubricants that can be sold, and energy and transport support that sustains the economy. Syrsky says the ratio of the cost of the attacks to the cost of the damage is 1:15.
Missile fuel and other fuel supplies were hit in Bryansk. A storage and repair site for artillery was also hit. While the damage is unknown, a black column of smoke filled the air.
NASA FIRMS satellite service show that some of the 32 petroleum tanks were burning 70 km east of Luhansk on the Russian side of the border. These tanks were also attacked in August (twice) and November 2024.
The Atlant-Aero plant in Taganrog produces Orion drones, EW systems and digital integration for FPV drones. Drones set it on fire.
The unrest in Ingushetia continues with an explosion at a police college. 370 km east of Moscow there was ethnic unrest.
Russia received two more Su-35s, the third such delivery in 2025. 50 km west of Volgograd, Russians were preparing for flight operations at Marynovka airbase when Ukrainian drones arrived, hitting four Su-34s and some of the infrastructure. While long-ranged drone attacks on static buildings have been common, engaging parked aircraft requires intelligence on their specific location (with imagery or local observation) and a belief based on behaviors that they will still be at that location while the drones fly 4-6 hours to attack them.
***
Ukraine
21 were killed and more than 300 injured in a missile attack on Dnipro. The immediate aftermath of the attack on the Dnipro Tube Plant.
On a night in which Russia sent 537 drones and missiles, Ukraine lost an F-16 and a pilot.
The intercepting drone can’t be seen, but the impact on the Geran can.
In April 2024, there was a plot to assassinate Zelensky at an airport in Poland. A retired military officer recruited by Russia decades earlier was either going to use a sniper rifle or a drone but was foiled by Polish and Ukrainian security services. There were at least three assassination attempts on Zelensky in 2022 and dozens since, including two colonels in Zelensky’s protective force that were arrested after planning an attempt.
Andriy Yermak is the head of Zelensky’s Presidential Office. His brother is a sniper and operates drones in the foreign legion of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) and the Russians decided to assassinate him. An engineer from Kharkiv rented an apartment in Kyiv and began to build a bomb while a 14-year-old monitored the brother’s house. The time of the attack would be at 3 pm on May 15 while Andriy Yermak was in Turkey talking to the Russians. The SBU monitored the engineer with video and audio surveillance and had access to his phone as he talked with his Russian handlers. They evacuated the brother’s wife and two kids. 800 grams is enough to destroy an SUV and the bomb had 2.5 kg of explosives. The plan was for the engineer to ring the doorbell and hand the package over. The Russians likely would have detonated the bomb when they heard the door open, killing the engineer, whoever opened the door and doing a lot of damage to the apartment building.
In December, a Russian general and an aide were killed by a bomb planted in a nearby scooter. In Kyiv, a Ukrainian serviceman meets a girl on a dating app. She asks him to get her apartment keys from her scooter. He steps back right before it explodes. In Kharkiv, two servicemen are promised a free scooter in which a 19-year-old woman placed a kilogram of TNT at the direction of her Russian handlers. Using a remote camera, the Russians detonate the bomb, killing one and seriously injuring another. The woman is arrested.
Almost a million people are serving in Ukraine’s military and 70,000 of them are women and 5,500 serve on the front line. Women now account for 21% of applicants at recruitment centers. The 13th Khartia Brigade is a progressive, effective unit and the anchor brigade of the 2nd Corps, and it is actively recruiting women. The brigade has hundreds of vacant positions and the 2nd Corps has thousands of positions that need to be filled. Some brigades still refuse to recruit women. “Khartiia was the only brigade at the time (when I was enlisting in 2023) that considered women for a combat role,” said one soldier. “Motivated women are better at any job than unmotivated men,” said another.
In the 14th and 15th century, English and Scottish kings and queens outlawed the game of “fute-ball” (think rugby) because it was “likely to result in homicides and fatal accidents.” Not only would this deprive the rulers of men needed for combat, but it distracted them from the sport of archery, which was a useful military skill. Along those lines, the first regional FPV drone racing championship was held in Kyiv, organized by the Ukrainian Federation of Military-Technological Sports. There were also demonstration flights, training sessions for interested bystanders, and presentations of cutting-edge developments from drone manufacturers.
At the beginning of the open invasion McDonald’s closed all their restaurants in Ukraine. When they reopened a store in Kyiv in September 2022 people lined up for hours. Now McDonald’s has more restaurants in Ukraine now than they did in 2022. IKEA and the Spanish fashion brand Zara returned. Since 2022, over 2600 foreign companies have started operations in Ukraine, led by Turkey with 13% of businesses. Internally, there has been a lot of disruption. By November 2023, over 7800 Ukrainian businesses had moved and 27% companies left Kyiv. In 2024, the number that moved increased to 11,000, with a third of those moving leaving Kyiv, but relocation was decreased by 23% compared to 2023. Ukraine’s economy is expected to grow 2-3% this year, propped up by foreign aid. Last October, it was estimated that Ukraine would have a $40 billion trade deficit representing 21.6% of its GDP. That would be offset by $38.4 billion in financial aid and a 10% devaluation of the hryvnia.
A native of Donbas discusses his experiences living as a civilian and resistance fighter prior to 2022 and fighting in the Ukrainian army after the open invasion.
***
Diplomacy
South Korea says that North Korea is preparing to send its troops into Ukraine in July or August.
A Russian warship escorted a sanctioned tanker through the Mediterranean Sea and met a second sanctioned tanker in the Atlantic to escort both tankers through the English Channel. In May, Estonia tried to intercept a tanker in the Baltic Sea and withdrew when the Russians sent an Su-35. Finland warned at the beginning of the year that Russian escorts of shadow fleet ships may become routine.
Putin is open to talking to Germany but Germany has to initiate contact. Merz responded, "A heavy Russian attack on Kyiv and a hospital accompanied the latest visit of the Hungarian prime minister to Moscow. An attack on a children's hospital following the latest phone call [between] my predecessor [and Putin]. If that’s what comes of such calls, I would refrain from them for a long time."
600 Chinese servicemen will travel to Russia to learn how to defeat NATO equipment.
The delivery of two S-400 systems to India were scheduled for 2023 but were delayed once again until 2026-7 due to the war. India also refused to pay in dollars to avoid sanctions. They also don’t want to pay in rubles because of the volatility of the currency. At least one component of an Indian S-400 was hit during the recent conflict with Pakistan.
A former Ukrainian diplomat was arrested in Hungary for espionage and deported to Ukraine. He also possessed Russian citizenship because he lives in occupied Crimea and wishes to move to Russia. Hungary annulled his deportation because a judge said the the alleged threat to national security was not established. Ukraine does not currently recognize dual citizenship and draft-age males are barred from leaving Ukraine, so he cannot return to his family in Hungary.
The Serbian government announced it was suspending all arms exports for national security and economic reasons, not because of criticism from Russia for Serbian ammo ending up in Ukraine. There had also been criticism for shipping arms to Israel. There were immediate international protests as well as domestic protests from the defense companies that wanted to sell the ammo and the workers that wanted to be employed. So the government modified its decision and said it will create a list of countries that can receive ammo and that each shipment must have government approval.
An international arbitration tribunal ordered Russia’s Gazprom to pay Ukraine’s Naftogaz $1.37 billion for debt in gas transit services. Gazprom tried to block the proceedings in Russian courts but failed. Naftogaz is also seeking $5 billion for the illegal expropriation of assets in Crimea in 2014. That process is ongoing in 10 different jurisdictions and in most jurisdictions local law firms are providing their services to Ukraine free of charge. In Finland and France, Russian property has already been seized to pay for damages.
Poland joins the Baltic States and Finland in withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention, in which signatories pledge not to use, manufacture, stockpile or transfer anti-personnel mines. Ukraine is just now withdrawing from the agreement although they have been using anti-personnel mines throughout the war.
Russian agents burned six Bundeswehr trucks in Germany. Of course, ‘Russia is waging no war against Europe’, and ‘spending 5% is going to solve such problems’…
***
Equipment
Ukraine is testing domestically produced glide bombs with a range of 60 km and plans to extend that range to 80 km. If released at an altitude of 10 km the range could reach 100 km. A Ukrainian and a French navigation model are both being tested and are designed to resist jamming. It is reported to be similar to the Russian glide bomb but designed to be more accurate.
Russian Iskander missile production increased by almost three times between 2023 and 2024, building 700 missiles last year. They were aided by Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machines that create the machines that build the missiles. Most of the CNC machines were provided by China, with some arriving from Belarus and some from Taiwan until their government stopped CNC exports in 2024. The plant added two workshops and 2500 employees.
In addition to China, Belarus and Taiwan, it turns out that companies in the Czech Republic delivered CNC machines to Russia so they could increase weapons production.
The Pantsir air defense system has smaller, cheaper anti-drone missiles that has a range of 500-7000 meters and can engage drones from 15 to 5000 meters in altitude.
Russian plans to produce 2 million FPV drones and 30,000 long-range and 30,000 decoy drones in 2025.
Ukraine is mass producing a homing module that can be activated 500 meters from a stationary target, and can acquire moving targets at 150 meters. Once activated, the module is EW resistant and will hit a target within one meter of its aiming point without operator assistance.
The Wild Hornets developed a winged drone that can reach 11 km in altitude. Designed to be an interceptor drone, it is still undergoing testing and further capabilities were not revealed.
Zelensky says the production potential of Ukraine’s defense industry is over $35 billion but only 45% of the capacity is funded. As an example, he says that Ukraine has the capacity to produce 8 million drones and the government is expected to buy only 4.5 million for $2.6 billion (less than $600 per drone) in 2025 due to lack of funding. In October 2024, Ukraine’s capacity was 4 million drones, of which 1.5 million were funded, and 96% were produced in Ukraine. Ukraine plans to build 30,000 long-ranged drones and 3,000 missiles in 2025.
France is in discussion to jointly produce drones and other weapons with Ukraine, as is Canada. Over ten Finnish companies are working with Ukraine, and one is producing a drone that fires 3000 fragments over a 50 meter diameter circle, about 1.5 fragments for every square meter. The Netherlands will produce 600,000 drones ($580 million), send another $203 million in the form of 100 anti-drone radars and 20 Ermine unmanned casualty evacuation vehicles, and $116 in recent and future funding for Ukrainian drone production. Norway is sending $682 million to fund Ukrainian drones (including naval drones) and will jointly build missiles in Ukraine for the NASAMS air defense system. Germany and Canada will finance the mass production of two models of drones that intercept Shahed drones.
As one part of a $6.1 billion aid package, the UK will produce drones and fund Ukrainian drone production. Every six weeks feedback from the battlefields will be incorporated into UK drone upgrades and all drones produced will be sent to Ukraine for the duration of the war. Ayos Aerospace builds aerial, ground and maritime drones and will send $40 million worth of them to Ukraine.
Denmark allocated $78 million to establish factories to Ukrainian weapons on Danish soil. In addition to transferring technology, all the artillery, drones and missiles created will be sent to Ukraine. Denmark will eventually contribute $1.5 billion to producing Ukrainian drones.
Ukraine will export military technologies and establish production lines in countries that already finance Ukraine’s defense industries or intend to do so. The agreements cover drones, missiles and possibly artillery systems. In return, Ukraine asks that their partner governments provide 0.25% of their GNP to Ukraine’s defense industry.
The data from the war in Ukraine and the Saudi interception of Houthi attacks resulted in software upgrades that improved the performance of Patriot air defense systems. For three months now Ukraine has been trying to buy more Patriot systems. Ukraine would also like to produce Patriot systems and missiles in cooperation with Raytheon but that also requires US government approval.
The governments of Ukraine’s allies have been slow to determine how to react to the Russian invasion but the speed of their decisions increased after the US withdrew from its position as the leading provider of aid. The bureaucracy tasked with turning policy into action is still sluggish, though. German industry leaders are asking for firm contracts and long-term orders so they can plan, procure the resources and produce the equipment in a timely manner. The leaders all say they can ramp up production quickly but current EU procurement rules are too bureaucratic and slow and burdens them with complex requirements. To that end, Germany announced plans to spend €20 billion on ammo procurement out to 2037.
Besides calling for procurement legislation reform, there is an increasing demand for the standardization of weapon systems within the EU, a common-sense objective that has been unable to overcome economic nationalism for years. Similar issues scuttled the German and US efforts to create a joint main battle tank in the 60s and 70s. With the emergence of China, the realignment of the US, and belated acceptance of the Russian threat, the nations of Europe might revisit standardization in the future.
NATO provided €37 million in satellite communication equipment for Ukraine. In the coming months the value of communication equipment donated will exceed €70 million. This will increase Ukraine’s capabilities and the interoperability between NATO and Ukraine. Ukraine and NATO will also create a Lessons Learned platform for analysis, training, and education based on data from lessons learned during combat operations.
A Shahed/Geran-2 drone was recovered on the ground with a thermal imaging system and an antenna. Its serial number is indicating that this one was probably made in Iran.
***
Drone Operations
Robert “Madyar” Brovdi started the war as an infantryman and then used his initiative to fly a drone to spot Russian positions in the Kherson sector. He then led a drone platoon that became a company, then a battalion, and then a regiment. His true gift of leadership is his ability to communicate with his soldiers and the public, encourage initiative, hold people accountable to a certain standard, and recognize value and a good idea when he sees it. He was promoted to lead the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine and he has ideas.
Not all these ideas originated with him, but he recognized the value in them. Drone crews get points for each target they hit. He plans to regularly invite point leaders of the top 12 units, plus leaders of other randomly selected units, to provide advice in a focus group. Not only can the very successful units share their methods and suggestions, the other units can share their experiences and needs.
His goal is to destroy 35,000 Russians a month, which is the number of troops that Russia mobilizes each month.
As part of the “Drone Wall” concept, he plans to dedicate a drone unit for each section of the front line instead of moving them around like mobile reserves. In this way, the drone operators can become familiar with the terrain and weather, the enemy capabilities and behaviors, and friendly unit capabilities and behaviors. Relationships with local units can be formed and coordination on operations can be improved. (See the number of units involved in the Zaporizhzhia train attack).
This concept of dedicated drone units aligns with how the Corps should fight: Dedicated to a sector, gaining knowledge of the terrain and enemy, and developing good working relationships with all local friendly units.
The previous priority for Ukrainian drones had been tanks and artillery if they could find them, and logistical vehicles were hit hard. Brovdi has switched the priority to eliminating Russian reconnaissance and strike drone capabilities, which means intercepting drones, hunting drone teams and identifying command and logistical centers that support drone operations. He is seeking air superiority. If he can achieve it, Russian offensive operations will be degraded, less Ukrainians will die and less territory will be lost.
A Russian report claims that 65% of Ukrainian casualties happen during troop rotation or during resupply. Movement is deadly because it is easier to detect with drones and drones are everywhere. Eliminating Russian drone operators would reduce the chances of Ukrainians being spotted and attacked.
As dangerous as the strike drones are, the reconnaissance drones are more important. In order to attack a target you have to detect a target. While strike drones have their own detection capabilities, reconnaissance drones have greater capabilities in range and loitering for persistent observation. Strike drones move in and out. Reconnaissance drones can linger for hours without blinking. They provide the intelligence for missile targets when trains unload equipment or troop activity on a training ground. They can see logistical vehicles moving 20 km behind the front line. Without them, the strike drone would have to hunt, not knowing if a target was available and the range of its activities would be reduced.
Ukraine has to eliminate drone operators faster than they can be trained and replaced. The Russians say he is also using HIMARS to support his operations. It would make sense if factories that produce drones or fiber optic cables would become a higher priority for Ukrainian long-range strikes into Russia.
***
The point system for drone strikes was first started in August 2024 as a pilot program and is now used by 420 drone units, which is 90% of the UAV forces. It can boost morale and translate objectives into reality but there have been some isolated issues with it.
One of the advantages is that video proof is required and these videos provide data that can be analyzed by commanders and engineers alike. If there isn’t a separate observation drone recording the attack and its aftermath then the only video available is the drone’s attack approach but there is no video if the equipment is destroyed or damaged, or if an infantry man is killed, wounded or unharmed. Efforts to prove they destroyed a target can interfere with efforts to destroy more targets.
Sometimes drones and artillery combine to engage targets, but determining who actually destroyed a target can be difficult. Sometimes drone teams would pursue an armored vehicle when it was worth more points than infantry even though the infantry were the greater threat. Some units withhold intelligence from neighboring units. Other teams move from a quiet sector they are monitoring to another sector that has more activity, leaving the quiet sector vulnerable without drones to detect enemy activity.
On the other hand, there was a case when two units were hunting multiple vehicles together and it wasn’t clear which unit killed a certain vehicle. The commanders of both units insisted the other unit should take credit because they might need the drones more.
Another issue is that the supply of drones for the program is low enough that it can sometimes take six months to receive the drones that were earned. For many units, they only received 20% of their drones through the point system and rely on deliveries from the government and private donations. The best situation would be if there were enough drones so that no one relied on the points program for drones and the points would be used just to determine objectives and prestige.
***
In the First World War, enemy artillery was located by sound sensors or the flash of the guns at night. In the Korean war, radar tracked artillery shells to the point of origin. The coordinates were then relayed to friendly artillery units that performed counter battery fire. Enemy mobile artillery would try to leave their firing position before the shells landed. Towed artillery crews seek cover, and some Chinese artillery crews would push their guns back into caves. Counter battery radars would become widespread throughout different armies and self-propelled artillery would practice rapid displacement to avoid the counter battery fire.
In Ukraine, radars are still useful, but any drones in the area can provide not only the location of where the gun fired, but where it was moving to. Or, if it was towed, that it wasn’t moving at all.
When pursuing self-propelled guns, drones are often the preferred choice because they usually hit moving targets with their first drone. (Sometimes multiple drones are needed to kill a target). Artillery usually needs several rounds to incapacitate a target, especially when they need to anticipate where the target will be in 30 seconds or more as the shell flies through the air.
As the number and capabilities of drones increases, so does the rate of artillery losses. Artillery still provides a heavier weight of fires than drones and they are very useful when massed attacks moving quickly could overwhelm drones that are trying to intercept them, but the drone will continue to rise in effectiveness until adequate drone defenses are deployed.
Thanks Don. With the point system I’m just worried that unit will quickly start to game it and we will see highly inflated numbers of units destroyed