Thanks for a detailed and informative analysis. Explaining why this will take some time, but this obviously a situation of cascading effects. First things get delayed a little, then more and then stopped. And all small effects will add up to problems. But we should unfortunately not underestimate Russian ingenuity and will to find solutions either. Can Ukraine maintain air superiority? We shall hope and pray and see. Of course, the effects of the long strikes campaign fuels into this, gasoline becomes more and more difficult to attain, air-defense must be put somewhere and cannot be put everywhere…
All true. Will Ukraine be able to continue to launch this volume of drones? It seems they can and are greatly helped by allied funding. We know that classical Russian air defenses are being destroyed much faster than they can be produced. Ukrainian long-ranged attacks are reducing production capacity and the attack on (another) semiconductor plant was particularly useful.
Can Russia come up alternative air defenses? Nothing has been shown to date. They can scale drone interceptor and mobile gun teams to a certain degree, but they'll never have enough to cover all the ground.
It is entirely possible that Russia could come up with some system that is more effective than what they have now. It is also likely that this increased effectiveness will not be enough. In any case, Ukraine is doing the right thing by hitting as hard as they can as fast as they can so if Russia does come up with something, too much will already be broken.
Seems to me, Russian pace of innovations has slowed due to other problems they have. It does not mean they cannot come with some countermeasure, but it may come later or be weaker.
In a war of attrition like the one being fought now every thing goes a little slower. Russia is loosing the innovation war. I also think they had things running on Star Link, maybe even innovation planned on Starlink. Shutting down that has major implications. Add to that the problems the whole Russian military got into when they had to stop using Telegram. And of course honestly the Ukrainians are fighting more strategically sound. They have attacked air-defense a long time and the Russians have been unable to keep up. Size matters and in this case it is a disadvantage for Russia. In the process innovation gets hurt.
Is impressive this dossier! The almighty aeroflot have now only a few aircrafts and don't have the capacity of a massive airlift like in the Afghans times!
Ukraine do not need to destroy earthen bridges. If they would be able to destroy trucks on or near them every day, Russain drivers would refuse to use them. It would not block the traffic, but may limit it severely.
Thanks for a detailed and informative analysis. Explaining why this will take some time, but this obviously a situation of cascading effects. First things get delayed a little, then more and then stopped. And all small effects will add up to problems. But we should unfortunately not underestimate Russian ingenuity and will to find solutions either. Can Ukraine maintain air superiority? We shall hope and pray and see. Of course, the effects of the long strikes campaign fuels into this, gasoline becomes more and more difficult to attain, air-defense must be put somewhere and cannot be put everywhere…
All true. Will Ukraine be able to continue to launch this volume of drones? It seems they can and are greatly helped by allied funding. We know that classical Russian air defenses are being destroyed much faster than they can be produced. Ukrainian long-ranged attacks are reducing production capacity and the attack on (another) semiconductor plant was particularly useful.
Can Russia come up alternative air defenses? Nothing has been shown to date. They can scale drone interceptor and mobile gun teams to a certain degree, but they'll never have enough to cover all the ground.
It is entirely possible that Russia could come up with some system that is more effective than what they have now. It is also likely that this increased effectiveness will not be enough. In any case, Ukraine is doing the right thing by hitting as hard as they can as fast as they can so if Russia does come up with something, too much will already be broken.
It's not over until it's over.
Seems to me, Russian pace of innovations has slowed due to other problems they have. It does not mean they cannot come with some countermeasure, but it may come later or be weaker.
Time will tell, but that's how I see it.
In a war of attrition like the one being fought now every thing goes a little slower. Russia is loosing the innovation war. I also think they had things running on Star Link, maybe even innovation planned on Starlink. Shutting down that has major implications. Add to that the problems the whole Russian military got into when they had to stop using Telegram. And of course honestly the Ukrainians are fighting more strategically sound. They have attacked air-defense a long time and the Russians have been unable to keep up. Size matters and in this case it is a disadvantage for Russia. In the process innovation gets hurt.
Excellent detail Don, thank you 👍
Excellent analysis, thank you.
Is impressive this dossier! The almighty aeroflot have now only a few aircrafts and don't have the capacity of a massive airlift like in the Afghans times!
Great as always mr Hill!
Ukraine do not need to destroy earthen bridges. If they would be able to destroy trucks on or near them every day, Russain drivers would refuse to use them. It would not block the traffic, but may limit it severely.
Any delay is good.