By Donald Hill and Tom Cooper
Hello everybody!
A little bit later than usually, here’s the next issue of Don’s Weekly - and, it cannot be denied: the situation regarding the War in Ukraine remains ‘very exciting’.
Contrary to the last few weeks, meanwhile the primary reason is related to the announcements of the President of the USA, Donald J Trump - and members of his administration - which some are interpreting as ‘abandonment of Ukraine and Europe’.
We’re not sharing such standpoints. Quite on the contrary: the experiences have shown that Trump tends to negotiate ‘Russian style’. As first, he expresses his maximum demands, then sees what can he get in reaction - and, usually, he settles for far less (if anything at all) than originally announced. This was the case a number of times (best example is the US pull-out from Afghanistan). Exceptions were few affairs where the other party has left itself be impressed by his boasting, or was dumb enough to get corrupted for other reasons. In the case of Ukraine - and especially in reaction for Trump’s (publicly announced) intention to negotiate with Pudding in person while ignoring everybody else (including Ukraine but also the European-part of NATO, not to talk about the European Union), the standpoint of official Kyiv is meanwhile also clear (or at least announced as such): the Zelensky administration is not going to accept any kind of agreements between the USA and Russia without its involvement.
‘Hat off’: is the only way to deal with bullies - especially those who are priding themselves with violations of the constitution representing something like ‘liberation’ of their nations - and also perfectly in sense of what do we get to hear out of Ukraine, and especially the ranks of the ZSU, and that regardless how tired is everybody of this war.
Sure, this might create the impression where Trump is thus ‘free’ to go babbling with Pudding, and the two would then be free to reach an agreement - and then, if Kyive and Europe refuse to accept the results, also to be ‘free’ to blame Ukraine and Europe for a failure of their ‘golden handshake’ (or whatever you want to call it). However, and irrespective of possible repercussions on the international stage (especially for Ukraine’s and European reputation) alone the fact that for the Russians - and especially for Pudding - no agreements are worth a pence if not supported by ‘power’ (indeed, ‘military superiority’) is speaking its own language. This is not to talk about the obvious fact that the Trump administration is hell-or-bent on ‘ending’ the war in Ukraine without having any other ideas how to do that, except to make concessions at the cost of Ukraine. Moreover, Europe (just like the ‘entre West’, including the USA etc.) has ruined its own reputation so well - through faithfully supporting Israel’s genocide on Palestinians, just for the start, not to talk about so many other of ‘brilliant’ political ideas here - that in this regards there’s actually nothing left to ruin.
But, well, as they say, ‘once you’ve lost the reputation, you’ve got nothing left to lose’.
Moreover, one should always keep in mind: announcements of such like Trump, and reality - i.e. what do they actually do once they’ve announced something - are not only ‘two different pairs of shoes’, but, actually, two different solar systems.
Actually, only one - currently - still ‘minor thingy’ is certain already now: the current generation of ‘Western’ politicians has ruined the entire system of governance and international politics - the current ‘world order’ - so well, and is so corrupt and incompetent, they’re going to be very happy to leave it to the next generation to repair all the damage they’ve caused and then left behind (if somebody is wondering about what am I talking about: check the results of the Second World War and how long that took to ‘repair’, at least materially). Fortunately, not only the governments of numerous ‘smaller’ European states, but at least the ‘2nd rank’ if not the ‘3rd rank’ in the politics of ‘major’ European states has meanwhile figured out what’s at stake, and what steps need to be taken as next; indeed, some are diligently ‘rolling up the sleeves’. Moreover, no threat is as uniting ‘Europe’ as that of ‘Pudding’ and ‘Russia’ (especially if not ‘reinforced’ by Trump). There is a realisation that Europe can’t go on like the last 20-30 years; at least that new solutions must be found. Thus, amid all the ‘bad news’ of recent times, actually: there’s a glimmer of hope in support of those who are ‘cautiously optimistic’.
Of course, repairing the ruins of the system is not going to be easy, nor straightforward, or without (often: massive) complications. Actually, the old system, the old ‘world order’ is irreparably damaged. It’s going to take building an entirely new one. But: if that would be easy, it would’ve been done already long ago…
***
From the frontlines… Generally, the last week the intensity of Russian assaulting continued decreasing. There’s still lots of uncertainty regarding the reasons, thus we’ll have to wait for a while longer… until the smoke (and dust) clear - to understand the ‘why’.
Kursk
The last week the Russian Air-Space Force (VKS) run so many air strikes on the ZSU in this arae that some are estimating that over 50% of bombs and missiles deployed by this service alone were pulverising the Russian territory. Artillery strikes were at least as heavy. Simultaneously, renewed Russian ground attacks - especially in direction of Sverdlikovo - resulted in the Russian Armed Forces (VSRF) suffering extensive losses. Alas, they did manage to push the Ukrainians back, too.
A Russian tank and self-propelled gun were destroyed in Tolsty Lug.
The 47th Brigade is using the laser-guided 155 mm Copperhead shell.
East of Pogrebki, a Russian tank shells Ukrainian positions. Olgovka is attacked by thermobaric rockets.
A Russian counter attack 3 km east of Cherkasskaya Konopelka resulted in the destruction of two BMPs and infantry. To the west of the village, a Ukrainian command vehicle is hit.
Russian artillery bombards Guyevo.
Attackers used thermal capes trying to avoid Ukrainian drones with thermal cameras.
Kupiansk
Following old patterns, Russia expanded their Dvorichna bridgehead over the river by up to 3 kilometers in some areas. This is not a sudden blitzkrieg. This is a small advance that has crawled forward over 11 weeks. If the old patterns hold, Syrsky is going to eventually send more troops to contain the advance. Don’t tell him that exactly the same amount of reinforcements could have been sent to eliminate any Russian advance ten weeks ago…
Two Russians walk 1200 meters to surrender near Synkivka.
Terny
Russia advanced south of Makiivka. Terny is functionally in Russian control. Attacks towards Yampolivka were repulsed. One attack was stopped on the outskirts of the village with artillery and cluster munitions.
Siversk
Ukraine destroys two armored vehicles and then hunts down the infantry two kilometers west of Zolotarivka.
Chasiv Yar
Two kilometers south of Chasiv Yar, the village of Yuzhny is bombarded by rockets twice. Western Chasiv Yar was also hit by MRL and thermobaric rockets. Russia was unable to advance in this sector.
Toretsk
Ukrainian and Russian attacks have been intermixed throughout Torestsk indicating a very fluid situation.
Ukrainian infantry dismount in northern Toretsk while artillery tries to hit the vehicle. Multiple houses are hit by Ukrainian drones. The mine in nothern Toretsk is shelled by Russians. The Lyut Police Brigade assaults a Russian position. A building is cleared in western Toretsk by Ukrainian troops. Russian drones are shown making approaches on a lot of targets but signal interference makes it difficult to tell if any targets were actually hit. Two different Ukrainian MRAP vehicles were hit in central Toretsk. Russian attacks in eastern Toretsk, previously occupied by Russians. Ukrainian infantry are bombed in southern Toretsk.
A Russian self-propelled gun was destroyed 7 km from the front line.
Pokrovsk
Russians report a shortage of food, water, fuel and reinforcements. In addition to Ukrainian drones, there is constant shelling. Morale is low, Russians are feeling overwhelmed and they hope for airstrikes to stop Ukraine’s counter attacks.
…big surprise, considering how many troops they’ve stuffed into this sector, and what kind of casualties and damage these have suffered. But, there you have it: this is yet another brilliant example for the failure of the ideology of all those still insistent on ideas like, ‘more troops and arms are going to solve the problem’…
Keep in mind: that’s the essence of what is left of Russian ‘military sciences’.
The 425th Battalion clears the basements of Pischane.
The 68th Jaeger Brigade discussed how they took Dachenske.
After three days of negotiations through drone messages, nine Russians surrendered 2 km northeast of Lysivka. As said: ‘new solutions’ (for old problems… like the Russians refusing to surrender).
A heavily used road 3 km west of Selydove is littered with wrecks, some of which were still smoking and burning. The 37 vehicles were geolocated by Andrew Perpetua below.
Andriivka
While Drapaty seems to have repaired much (though not ‘most’, and surely not ‘all’) of the damage Syrky has caused in the Pokrovsk Sector, Syrsky is still diligently ruining the Andriivka sector. Obviously, that’s going to take another commander to repair, too…
Why that?
Well, the three weeks-long risk of six ZSU brigades being cut off in the cauldron just significantly increased with a Russian breakthrough to Ulakly from the south. Something of that kind had to happen, sooner or later - simply because some military genius in Kyiv (hint, hint) remains convinced that cauldrons stand for ‘tactical effectiveness’ (indeed: that a retreat from one is his biggest professional achievement of all the times), and thus, as that cauldron is getting deeper, ever less troops have to defend ever longer stretches of the frontline with ever less reinforcements, supplies, and ammunition.
Absolutely unpredictable and thus extremely surprising, isn’t it?
And so, now there is a 1500-metres-wide gap for Ukrainian units still located east of Ulakly.
Fortunately (foremost for those still inside that cauldron) a different attack towards Kostiantynopil (red arrow on the map above) was turned back.
Bottom line: both the ZSU troops fighting in this sector, and we are (eagerly) looking forward for Syrsky to forget about this- and busy himself with some other sector, so that somebody with serious skill in the discipline ‘military command’ can take over.
Four kilometers north of Andriivka, the 153rd Brigade stops a Russian assault that used trucks.
Russian shelling 1500 meters south of Ulakly. Russian drone attacks inside Ulakly.
A Russian airstrike south of Rozlyv.
A Ukrainian armored vehicle is destroyed 750 meters southeast of Ulakly.
Velyka Novosilka
Russia made a two kilometer advance across an eight kilometer front - which, considering how few forces the ZSU has in this sector, is still bordering on miracle. Alternatively, this is another confirmation that Syrsky can’t find this sector on any of his maps, and thus remains not involved…
Russia attacks Ukrainian targets in Novoocheretuvate.
Zaporizhzhia
Ukrainian drones engaged three Russian air defense systems but there wasn’t any footage from a reconnaissance drone to document the results.
Black Sea
Ukraine’s navy uses laser guided rockets to intercept 11 Shahed drones.
Unknown Location
Mi-24 helicopters shoot down Russian drones, including an Orlan-10.
Nuclear Facilities
The IAEA monitors the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) with the aim of preventing radiological accidents. Russia wants to impose international recognition of their illegal occupation of the plan. The IAEA rotates their observers and Russia failed to provide security guarantees for their vehicles in the past. They’ve also attacked their columns and blamed it on Ukraine. They recently attacked the column with two mortar shells, five artillery shells and four FPV drones and blamed it on Ukraine. Here, a vehicle runs over a mine and keeps driving. The damage to the vehicle is shown here. Some of the attacks from the point of view of the convoy.
Russia also attacked the ZNPP and other nuclear facilities several times in the past and placed military equipment there hoping to draw Ukrainian fire.
Last week, the Russians attacked the Chernobyl nuclear power plant with one of their UAVs, and breached outer shell of the destroyed reactor. Fortunately, the inner shell was not breached.
…must be Pudding demonstrating to Trump he’s somebody with whom one can seriously negotiate and reach firm agreements…
Unknown Location
Foreign soldiers in the Ukrainian army trip a bounding anti-personnel mine. They are both in the kill zone, but the mine wasn’t set up properly so they live to tell the tale.
Russia
Russia has a glut of crude oil production. Attacks on the refineries limited the amount of oil that can be converted into gas, diesel and other refined products. Sanctions on 180 Russian tankers make it harder to export the unprocessed oil. Russia has a limited storage capacity for oil and Ukraine also attacked many oil depots. 10% of Russia’s refinery capacity is currently damaged and repairs could take months, not counting any future attacks. The only alternative left to Russia is to cut oil production. As refineries and depots suffer more attacks, and sanctioned tankers face more operational difficulties, oil production could continue to be reduced in upcoming months.
Russian oil exports fell 17% in January 2024 when compared to January 2023. Because of new US sanctions, transportation costs for oil have increased 500% last January. 20% of Russia’s shadow fleet ships have been barred from Chinese and Indian ports. Russia is currently storing 17 million barrels of crude oil aboard tankers and that could rise to 50 million barrels by mid-2025. Russia recently bought 12 smaller tankers at double the cost of tanker purchases last year. Analysts expect Russia to eventually find alternative shipping solutions, but a Russian oil executive said, “The complexity involved in refining and selling oil is becoming overwhelming. Everyone is waiting for this war to be over.” And with this increasing pressure on Russia, Trump wants the war to end without the return of the occupied territories.
The Saratov oil refinery was attacked and a pipeline leading to the catalytic reforming unit was damaged. Slavyansk-on-Kuban was hit by at least five drones. The Andreapol pumping station was hit again, and the switchgear and boiler equipment storage facilities are burning.
Russian high casualties are difficult to process.
Two vehicles designed to jam drones were destroyed in explosions on a base just outside of Moscow.
Ukraine
In order to recruit soldiers, Ukraine is offering one year contracts worth €23,000 to volunteers who sign up before they turn 25. The contracts also offer zero-interest mortgages, state-funded training, free medical care, dental prosthetic and travel abroad. When the contract is up in a year they have a 12-month exemption from mobilization.
Salaries for existing service personnel are at €460 a month. If you serve in combat it’s €2,300 a month. There is no demobilization in sight for those already mobilised, though - and they don’t get the same benefits. Unsurprisingly, there is a huge amount of resentment from those that signed up out of patriotism. They believe their service is being taken for granted. And nobody can blame them for feeling that way, nor say they’re wrong…
Ah yes… and, just 11 years since the original Russian invasion, and mere 3 years since Pudding’s all-out invasion, the head of the SBU’s counter-terrorism department was arrested for being a Russian agent. Word is, he was recruited in 2018 but remained dormant until his handlers contacted him last December, and that’s why it took so long to get him. Perhaps the SBU might want to emphasise checking and tailing its own officers - instead of those of the ZSU…? Who can say…
Grafiti is used to recruit saboteurs and assassins.
Diplomacy
War is a battle of wills. Before actual fighting or the production of weapons, there must be a will to fight, and the struggle for that will was quite visible last week.
The United States intends to set the conditions for the end of fighting but has no plans to participate in maintaining those conditions. An end to fighting without the integration of Ukraine into the European defense network is simply a pause and a later resumption of fighting on Russian terms.
The leverage the US has is refusing to send any further aid to Ukraine. It can also reduce or eliminate the sanctions against Russia. It is clear Trump’s commitment to Ukraine is purely transactional and not based on humanitarian principles or collective security. It is not clear what he hopes to gain if he cannot conclude a deal with Ukraine that he favors. This may depend on what Russia has to offer.
The US and Russia are meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss the war. Ukraine was not invited. Kellogg said Europe may not be at the table if the US brokers negotiations to end the war, but then said Europe would not be left out. “I will never accept any decisions between the United States and Russia about Ukraine, never,” said Zelensky.
The US Secretary of Defense says it’s unrealistic for Ukraine to return to its 2014 borders and ruled out NATO membership as a means of providing security for Ukraine. He also said that if any NATO member commits troops to Ukraine as part of a peace plan the US will not honor Article 5 if they are attacked. He says the US must prioritize defending its own borders and counter the Chinese threat, and that NATO members but increase defense spending to 5% instead of the current target of 2%. (The US currently spends 3.4% of its GDP on defense). Trump also wants Russia back in the G7.
The convicted felon Trump held a “lengthy and highly productive” telephone call with the aggressor and war criminal Putin. He wrote, “We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations. We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now.”
…and that right after he’s ‘informed’ Pudding and the public, first…
Ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine and letting a weakened Russia keep occupied territories are two basic goals for Putin. Such statements make the US an ally of Russia. They undermine one of the basic principles held since WW2 that stronger nations should not be allowed to take the territories of weaker nations. That was tested in Georgia in 2008 and the world failed that test. Based on that response, Russia made a larger effort in 2014 and the world responded with cowardice, appeasement, and a preference for economic convenience. In 2022, Russia made an even larger play for world domination and the West finally responded in a limited but still meaningful way.
After three years, Russia’s ability to fight has been severely degraded, leverage is being gained, and Trump makes the entire war about him without regard for those that are killed and their land that is occupied. Each domestic and international incident is simply another opportunity for him to gain more power. Governance in service of others is a foreign concept to him.
Allowing Russia to keep Ukrainian territory will only lead to future Russian aggression. This administration says that the US is now focusing on confronting China, but Russian successes in Ukraine will not deter China. The elimination of USAID not only hurts millions of people in 177 countries, including the US, but it was a very inexpensive investment in health, security and soft influence. The void left is now ready for China to fill.
Trump foreign policy is very erratic, often supported by lies. His decisions pay little regard to long term developments, and there are still many possible outcomes, all ego driven. Simply ending US aid to Ukraine is not the worst outcome. Ukraine could continue to fight with only European support. What would be worse is if the US reduced or ended the sanctions on Russia.
And yet, Trump claims the aid to Ukraine will continue. He uses words that have little meaning or logic: “We will continue sending aid to Ukraine; we just want to ensure our money is safe. If we don’t do this, Putin will say he has won. Everything depends on us. And we will go as far as necessary because we are not going to let things go another way.” His Treasury secretary is working on an economic cooperation deal that brings in continued material support for Ukraine (for rare earths, minerals, oil and gas).
Trump wanted half of Ukraine’s minerals, oil and gas to pay for what the equipment the US already sent to Ukraine. Zelensky rejected it because it did not come with a security guarantee from the US. European diplomats said the deal was colonial in nature, with a Western nation exploiting a smaller and weaker nation for commodities. A White House official said, “President Zelenskyy is being short-sighted about the excellent opportunity the Trump administration has presented to Ukraine. Binding economic ties with the United States will be the best guarantee against future aggression and an integral part of lasting peace. The U.S. recognizes this, the Russians recognize this, and the Ukrainians must recognize this.”
The words of the US are very erratic. The actions of the US have yet to be seen and the possibilities range from very good to very bad for Ukraine, or possibly both. And Trump’s position is highly influenced by the last person that talked to him.
It is clear that even if the US remains a democracy and the administration is changed in the future once again, it is no longer the reliable ally it once was. Europe needs to arm itself and establish policies as if it had no allies. Intentions can change in an instant. Capabilities remain even if intentions change. And every nation in the world must now recognize what Israel, North Korea and Iran understands: Nuclear weapons are an additional level of deterrence when conventional defenses fail.
Ukraine can make its own choices, regardless of any American efforts. Europe can make their own choices, regardless of any American efforts. America can simply make these choices harder or easier.
***
"A peace deal cannot be signed in Munich because it is Munich. We remember what things were signed here. I do not repeat such things," Zelensky said.
The UK says there can be no negotiation about Ukraine without Ukraine, and that Russia is a threat well beyond Ukraine.
“Why are we giving them everything they want even before the negotiations have started? It’s appeasement, it has never worked”, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said. “You need Ukrainians to implement this deal. I mean, that also doesn’t look good if somebody agrees on something and everybody else says, ‘Fine, you have agreed, but we will not follow this.’ The Ukrainians will resist and we will support them.”
The French defense minister said, "Either we are within the parameters of a discussion that will genuinely bring peace through strength, or, on the contrary, it will be peace through weakness," he said adding the latter could lead to "dramatic security situations" and a "widening of the conflict."
The Swedish prime minister said, “It’s certainly an innovative approach to a negotiation to make very major concessions even before they have started. Not even Chamberlain went that low in 1938. That Munich ended very bad anyhow.”
“Europe won’t survive sleeping through another wake-up call,” Lithuania’s foreign minister said, “I hope, seeing from the public space, there are a lot of people who do understand what's at stake. They do understand that it's not just the Ukrainian future at stake, but it could very well be a European future at stake. Our region is in danger. So it's our future that is being decided in those talks as well.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, commenting on Donald Trump’s recent conversation with Vladimir Putin, stressed that neither Ukraine nor Europe would support a "dictated peace". Eleven years after the first invasion and three years after the open invasion he said, "The Bundestag must urgently adopt a resolution classifying the war in Ukraine and its severe consequences for Germany’s and Europe’s security as an emergency situation under paragraph 2 under Article 115 of the Constitution. This will ensure that our support for Ukraine, which is more crucial than ever today, will no longer come at the expense of other obligations our state must fulfil for its own citizens. We find ourselves in this situation once again today. We must face the reality of what the actions and statements of the US administration mean for Ukraine, Europe and the world. Inaction would pose a threat to the security of our country and our continent and I will not allow this to happen at this critical time for our nation."
Vance said, “There’s a new sheriff in town,” and proceeded to lecture Europe about immigration and free speech. He appeared virtually at an AfD rally and urged them to move on from past guilt. CDU/CSU candidate Merz said, “The American security guarantees are being called into question, the Americans are questioning democratic institutions, and they are interfering quite openly in an election, including in relation to democratic parties and their majorities. It is not the job of the American government to explain to us here in Germany how we should protect democratic institutions. And we will continue on our course."
There are quite a few Republicans like Senator Graham that support Ukraine but will not oppose Trump because of the threat to their re-election.
***
After Ukraine decided not to renew an agreement to continue shipping Russian gas through its pipelines, Slovakia started receiving gas through Turkey. Fico says he now has the moral right to stop shipments of gas to Ukraine.
The US secured the release of an American and two Belarusian political prisoners in return for the release of a Russian bitcoin fraud criminal. The release of more political prisoners may follow in return for reduced sanctions on Belarusian banks and the export of potash. Lukashenko is trying to stay in power while avoiding Russian domination.
Equipment
The propellent charges used in Russian artillery have varying amounts of gunpowder in them which negatively impacts range and accuracy. In some units, half the artillery pieces do not function properly because untrained crews do not properly maintain them.
Germany is producing 1,000 HX-2 drones a month. With a range of 100 km, it has AI capabilities that make it resistant to EW jamming and can be employed as a networked swarm. 10,000 have been sent to Ukraine.
Ukraine says they are producing and importing 200,000 drones a month.
Don FYI how to understand ruzzian/us details of communication and way of negotiations with other countries involvement. https://youtu.be/RbUhSQNXDK0?si=JTzNCA2AyQi77jQ-
We Czech do have a lot of experience from last 100 years to share
Hi jaculis ille certand defendere saxis.
A latin motto about the current situation