Thanks for all that work Donald. It seems that at this 3rd anniversary, Europe may finally step up, while America makes itself irrelevant. But as you mentioned, the big risk is Trump reducing/removing sanctions. Surely congress wont allow him to go that far?
There are a lot of unknowns. Even Trump doesn't fully know what he's going to do. One factor is that there are a lot of Republicans that support Ukraine and oppose Russia. Trump is already taking actions that should be reserved for Congress and they're doing nothing about it. It remains to be seen how hard they would push for Ukraine and whether Trump would listen to them.
So only 10% of Russian refining capacity (which has been instate of overcapacity ) is down after so many strikes? While there are increasing signs of misbalances in Russian oil industry, it seems that most of them are due to the recent sanctions, and probably with time Russia will find way to avoid them.
Only 10%, but that still represents a lot of money. Usually just a few components are damaged in an attack. Depending on the extent of the damage and availability of replacement parts, repairs can take a couple of days to many months.
In addition to refinery equipment. oil storage units and export infrastructure has been attacked. There are the three small refineries that Russia is reportedly going to shut down because they aren't profitable, probably because of the price cap and the cost of repairs from normal wear and tear and attacks. The recent sanctions in December also had an impact. Workarounds can be found for some issues, but the Russian oil executives themselves said that it's extremely difficult to sell their oil or oil products.
So it's definitely more than just recent sanctions that are causing issues, and the issues have increased in magnitude over time.
Thanks! Now that ZSU has started its campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, it’s definitely worth continuing it - just checking the results. As for the three small refineries - if Russia is going to close them, then why ZSU was still attacking one of them (as of two-three days ago) ….
The three refineries reported as likely shutting down were the Tuapse, Ilyich and Novoshakhtinsk refineries. The Tuapse and Ilyich refineries were both hit in the last couple of days. Novoshakhtinsk, which was last hit in December (for at least the third time), was shut down a little more than two weeks ago with no reason given.
Strategically, drones are cheap. If they shut down one of these refineries for just one day Russia will lose more money than the drone cost. So if they shut down earlier than their planned date, Russia will lose even more money. If they hit machinery that is difficult to replace, it is more likely that they will shut down sooner.
Don FYI how to understand ruzzian/us details of communication and way of negotiations with other countries involvement. https://youtu.be/RbUhSQNXDK0?si=JTzNCA2AyQi77jQ-
We Czech do have a lot of experience from last 100 years to share
That was very educational. Thank you for your wisdom and experience in such matters.
Btw it's 2016 sitcom created to make a lot of fun from ourself https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_(TV_series)
Those are the best kind of sitcoms.
Hi jaculis ille certand defendere saxis.
A latin motto about the current situation
Thanks for all that work Donald. It seems that at this 3rd anniversary, Europe may finally step up, while America makes itself irrelevant. But as you mentioned, the big risk is Trump reducing/removing sanctions. Surely congress wont allow him to go that far?
There are a lot of unknowns. Even Trump doesn't fully know what he's going to do. One factor is that there are a lot of Republicans that support Ukraine and oppose Russia. Trump is already taking actions that should be reserved for Congress and they're doing nothing about it. It remains to be seen how hard they would push for Ukraine and whether Trump would listen to them.
Thanks Don,
So only 10% of Russian refining capacity (which has been instate of overcapacity ) is down after so many strikes? While there are increasing signs of misbalances in Russian oil industry, it seems that most of them are due to the recent sanctions, and probably with time Russia will find way to avoid them.
Only 10%, but that still represents a lot of money. Usually just a few components are damaged in an attack. Depending on the extent of the damage and availability of replacement parts, repairs can take a couple of days to many months.
In addition to refinery equipment. oil storage units and export infrastructure has been attacked. There are the three small refineries that Russia is reportedly going to shut down because they aren't profitable, probably because of the price cap and the cost of repairs from normal wear and tear and attacks. The recent sanctions in December also had an impact. Workarounds can be found for some issues, but the Russian oil executives themselves said that it's extremely difficult to sell their oil or oil products.
So it's definitely more than just recent sanctions that are causing issues, and the issues have increased in magnitude over time.
Thanks! Now that ZSU has started its campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, it’s definitely worth continuing it - just checking the results. As for the three small refineries - if Russia is going to close them, then why ZSU was still attacking one of them (as of two-three days ago) ….
The three refineries reported as likely shutting down were the Tuapse, Ilyich and Novoshakhtinsk refineries. The Tuapse and Ilyich refineries were both hit in the last couple of days. Novoshakhtinsk, which was last hit in December (for at least the third time), was shut down a little more than two weeks ago with no reason given.
Strategically, drones are cheap. If they shut down one of these refineries for just one day Russia will lose more money than the drone cost. So if they shut down earlier than their planned date, Russia will lose even more money. If they hit machinery that is difficult to replace, it is more likely that they will shut down sooner.