US aid to Ukraine is threatened and the world is noticing. Ukraine’s recent EW advantage is holding in Avdiivka and Russian armored vehicles are making limited appearances in the Kherson sector.
Western Luhansk
A Russian helicopter landed, maybe due to mechanical issues, and was on the ground long enough to be targeted by an M31 rocket. It was damaged beyond repair…https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1732436128593035670
In occupied easter Luhansk, a Ukrainian collaborator was assassinated…https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732419101975335309
Bakhmut
Ukraine conducted a limited counterattack towards Yahidne and Russia continued its attacks towards Klishchiivka.
4 km northwest of Bakhmut, Bohdanivka gets plastered by MLRS attacks…https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1733515023471821199/video/1
A Russian air defense system is destroyed in Soledar…https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1732862272467259393
The Ukrainian 92nd Brigade posted a few videos of them destroying Russian equipment…https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1732597659603468450
Also…https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1733248005522764116
Avdiivka
The Ukrainian advantage in electronic warfare seems to be holding in this sector. The number of Ukrainian drone attacks have increased. A lot. The number of Russian drone attacks have decreased by the same amount. With a reduction in attacks by Russian drones it can be presumed that there are fewer Russian drones spotting for artillery, as well. And reports of Russian shelling have also been reduced. This is likely a contributing factor in the lack of Russian advances around Avdiivka. Again, there is no telling how long Ukraine will have this advantage but it’s currently saving Ukrainian lives.
Fighting in the treeline across from Stepove. The drone is north of Stepove looking back at the slagheap and coke plant…https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1731705000315777489
Earlier, Russians had reached the eastern edge of Stepove, 250 m from the treeline before being eliminated. This time they seemed to have reached the middle of the village, 700 m from the treeline, before being pushed back 100 m…https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1731618928504328267
The 47th (not 67th) Brigade launches a counterattack north of the coke factory…https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1731434881467416594
More Russian casualties in front of the 47th Brigade…https://twitter.com/small10space/status/1732359029358280972
A 129th Territorial Defense Brigade drone team spots for artillery north of the slagheap…https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1731983631868895598
The aftermath of yet another Russian assault on Stepove…https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1732495353025348000
2 km east of the coke factory, Russians gained a foothold in some houses and a Ukrainian tank engaged them at point-blank range. At one point the tank runs over an anti-personnel mine without effect…https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1733252629843620021
A 25mm cannon from a Bradley in action…https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733023244448350647
Ukraine had to abandon a damaged Bradley. Russia was able to control the territory long enough to recover it…https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1732148681338405237
A Russian said there were 75 men in his unit when they went to the front line and there are only 14 now. They also couldn’t carry out their dead…https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1733585120076955989
A Russian recon and mechanical team recovered the abandoned Bradley and they now wear medals…https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1732280881459392889
Ukraine has been swarming the Stepove treelines with drone attacks…https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1731599976105402479
After a Russian BMP is immobilized by a mine, an artillery shell lands on the vehicle and infantry dismounting the BMP…https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1732088280068321689
Graphic: Ukraine prosecutes Russians occupying a destroyed Ukrainian home…https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1732702198771954161
Before Ukraine withdrew from the industrial park southeast of Avdiivka, the routes to some of their positions were covered by Russian weapons. Ukraine used a small tracked drone to deliver supplies and evacuate the wounded, reducing exposure to fire…https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1731403527384141983
A good view of the coke factory. Also, Russian missiles attack Ukrainian vehicles…https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1730263335545733302
From October, before the 47th Brigade arrived and there were a lot more trees. A Russian assault on the railroad treeline near Stepove. It’s a good video of the terrain…https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1732201733227528391
Also in October, a Ukrainian assault in between the coke factory and the slagheap…https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1731759206099722639
Marinka
Halfway between Marinka and Vuhledar, a Caesar 155mm gun is destroyed…https://twitter.com/WarVehicle/status/1732071101524504873
Kherson
Very little reporting outside of posted videos but the videos indicate that territory hasn’t changed much around Krynky. Ukraine still has a strong advantage with drones in this sector but Russian reconnaissance drones are still observing the right bank and have been attacking Ukrainian artillery, radar, tanks and even an M270 HIMARS vehicle at a rate of 1-2 per week. While incomplete, Andrew Perpetua only tracked five Russian drone attacks in this region during the week. After an absence for a couple weeks, Russian armored units are making an appearance again based on the video reports of their destruction.
Ukraine has moved across the Dnieper during the daylight, but they often use inclement weather and night to conduct movement for added security. But the world of drones is evolving as fast as aircraft did in WW1, and more Russian drones are equipped with thermal devices to the peril of Ukrainian troops…https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1733245948472533345
7 km north of the Dnieper, a Russian drone observes an M270 HIMARS launch three M31 rockets. The drone then observes the HIMARS move 3 km closer to the river to conceal itself. The drone calls in artillery on the woodline. There are no reports on whether the HIMARS was damaged or not…https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1733215029254627736
Recent pictures of Krynky…https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1730280915706822748
You might remember a nine-truck Russian convoy getting hit by two M31 rockets a couple weeks ago. Here’s the view from the ground. At the 30 second mark, you can get some idea of what 160k preformed fragments can do…https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1731957659018899948
Russians attack Ukrainians in Krynky from the edge of the forest…https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732742498601095173
A list of casualties from the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade near Krynky. Even with mobilized replacements it has been reduced to a battalion-sized unit. From September and November, the cause of death for 67 soldiers are listed: The average age of the dead is just over 41 years. There were 25 killed by artillery, four from enemy gunshots (two of which were snipers), 12 by mortar, and 9 by drone (either kamikaze drone or munitions dropped by drone). There are 12 listed as unknown causes, three suicides, one killed by his commanding officer, and one went AWOL, got drunk, and was shot by an unknown assailant. There are also wounded. This is a small sample size but is one indication of what Ukrainian weapon systems are causing the casualties at Krynky…https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/448
A sea drone warehouse on the Dnieper river…https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1732847386337169684
A Russian trench defending against drones…https://twitter.com/ManiacMagic1/status/1733120939783540898
More bombardment of Kherson with the purpose of killing civilians…https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1732104846038172106
Black Sea
A Russian Su-24M near Snake Island was shot down by a Patriot system…https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-su-24-shot-down-over-black-sea-points-to-tactical-shift
Russian helicopters engage Ukrainian naval drones…https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1732421001320059057
Russia
Tartarigami and his team noticed construction of a nuclear research and development site. They speculate that a new laser facility might be built to develop new nuclear bombs or determine if old warheads could still function…
Russian oil and gas revenue fell 41% in the first nine months of 2023. Russia would not accept India’s payment in rupees last July so it was paid for with Chinese yuan, Hong Kong dollars and the UAE dirham. In January, 13% of all Russia oil and gas sales were conducted with yuan and that increased to 35% in January. India and China has refused to pay with roubles but 39% were bought with Russian roubles in September…https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/revenues-russias-top-oil-gas-producers-fall-41-first-9-months-2023-2023-11-30/#:~:text=Commodities-,Revenues%20of%20Russia's%20top%20oil%20and%20gas%20producers%20fall%2041,first%209%20months%20of%202023
A Ukrainian traitor is reported dead in Russia from gunshot wounds…https://twitter.com/Doktor_Klein/status/1732435788405621201
The prisoners that joined the Russian war effort had many reasons. Some had nothing to lose. Others joined out of patriotism or for a chance to redeem their status in society, maybe even win glory, dead or alive. Others joined to help out their families financially, dead or alive…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/world/europe/russia-prison-wagner-ukraine.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20231204
Russian airlines continue to suffer from sanctions and reliability issues…https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733188158974496882
An electrical equipment plant burned in Moscow…https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1732799856186376449
Freedom of Russia League and the Russian Volunteer Corps
The Freedom of Russia League formed in March, 2022. Formed by defectors from the Russian armed forces and other Russian volunteers, they are opposed to Putin and the invasion of Ukraine. Their leaders have not been identified. The recruitment process consists of several interviews, a psychological test and polygraph examination, plus two months of training. They have several hundred members forming two battalions, which are part of Ukraine’s International Legion.
The Russian Volunteer Corps was formed by Denis Kapustin in August, 2022. He is a neo-nazi who has been banned by 23 EU states (the Schengen Area), and has about 200 fighters. They believe in a smaller, ethnic Russian state and use the symbols of the Russian Liberation Army, which collaborated with Germany in WW2.
The Russian Volunteer Corps conducted a raid into Bryansk, Russia, in March, 2023. Alongside the Freedom of Russia League, they conducted several raids into Belgorod, Russia since May, 2023. There are now reports that the Russian Volunteer Corps is participating in the battle for Avdiivka with Wagner and Storm Z personnel recruited from POW camps.
This article says that back in October the Russian Volunteer Corps participated in an Avdiivka engagement with both a former Wagner and a former Storm Z soldier in the unit. A spokesman said dozens are joining the unit, including a Russian lieutenant who convinced 11 other soldiers to surrender under the “I Want To Live” program…https://mil.in.ua/en/news/former-soldiers-of-the-pmc-wagner-and-storm-z-joined-the-russian-volunteer-corps/
Inside the article is a photo of a Russian POW captured by the Russian Volunteer Corps in Avdiivka dated from October…https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-volunteer-corps-joins-ukraine-in-avdiivka-direction-offensives/
This video published last week uses the symbol of the Russian Volunteer Corps. They were driven to the treeline in Bradley’s which are associated with Ukraine’s 47th Brigade…
Equipment
The Swedish Archer artillery system is now operating in Ukraine…https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1732907023061442586
Ukraine is extending the range of the Neptune missile and giving it a bigger warhead…https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1731781511408493030
Ukraine is building six 155mm guns a year right now. That rate will increase aided by the fact that they’ll build three different variants…https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a44507341/ukraine-fielding-western-caliber-artillery-vehicles/
A reliable reporter says the North Korean shells have a 50% dud rate…https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1733222868807270510
Diplomacy
Poland continues to block Ukrainian trucks from entering Ukraine, angered by Ukraine’s cheaper rates. Vehicles with Polish plates are allowed through. Humanitarian aid is allowed through at a rate of 1-2 vehicles a day. Military cargo is supposedly let through but there are reports that some are being blocked. And volunteer groups with supplies for frontline troops, including medical supplies, are blocked. As of November 23, Ukraine has lost 400 million euros as a result. The organizer of the blockade is the leader of the only Polish party that rejects aid to Ukraine. His truck company used to do heavy business in Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan and now only does business in the latter two countries at lower volumes. The outgoing government has done nothing to resolve the situation. The new Polish government will take office in mid-December…https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/03/ukraines-economy-lost-e400-mn-due-to-the-polish-border-blockade-some-military-cargo-also-blocked-including-1000s-of-tourniquets/?swcfpc=1&fbclid=IwAR2qAL9RQ5y-VpvPX8pBgLY6Cb3aaye98q6qCKRc_-seFzQNiYwYr9UWwBQ
Slovakian truckers plan to close their borders with Ukraine. I presume they could only do so with the approval of their government, too…https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1732403493707681864
Up to 50 blockaded trucks a day will be transported by train across the border (shown in a tweet within the article). It takes eight to fourteen days to cross the blockade, reports a Ukrainian driver. The only action the Warsaw government has taken is to open up a new checkpoint after lengthy negotiations with Ukraine, allowing empty trucks to move from Ukraine to Poland…https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-poland-slovakia-border-blockade-truckers-european-union-1850327#:~:text=Ukraine's%20infrastructure%20minister%2C%20Oleksandr%20Kubrakov,Poland%20after%20%22lengthy%20negotiations.%22&text=%22The%20ultimate%20goal%20of%20the,the%20border%2C%22%20Kubrakov%20added.
Russia spent tens of millions of dollars to discredit the Maidan in 2014. So far, they have spent $1.5 billion to forment a revolution in Ukraine in the last two years…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24775?fbclid=IwAR21GpRv91LlX4fGodAm7WG4bgLlzLkrJ2bhDrTqwVRm7w2H2whfUX099Tc
The US will have access to Swedish bases. There is some question regarding nuclear weapons…https://twitter.com/nukestrat/status/1732310421556678723?s=12&fbclid=IwAR2KQQGXDLLAkpJ7D8WHlKQkRodKwQpYJ4GcSmxjdpBPeodxOJ-JbWdX6FQ
The Bulgarian parliament overrode their president’s veto to send 100 BTR’s to Ukraine…https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733176396883574818
Japan will give $4.5 billion aid…https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1732838695949021533
330,000 155mm shells in Ukraine came from South Korea…https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1732821233786401090
There are a few countries that Putin can visit without being arrested…https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1732344267178192928
It wasn’t a low-key visit, either. I imagine the UAE airforce creates the flag of all visiting leaders…https://twitter.com/nedalalamari/status/1732362637822894453
On to Saudi Arabia…https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732473975077302515
While the MAGA Republicans do not wish to aid Ukraine most Republicans do. The difference now is that they are joining with their MAGA colleagues in holding Ukrainian aid hostage with an unrelated issue, in this case, the immigration issue. Democrats agree in general to make immigration more difficult but reject the very restrictive Republican proposals. It doesn’t mean that aid won’t be passed after more posturing…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/us/politics/senate-ukraine-aid-bill.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20231207
Ukraine’s defense minister was interviewed…https://www.foxnews.com/video/6342426831112?fbclid=IwAR3B0_j-C5yWKd0aRlrUArSKEybwr5OtsUhrebJSK4uVbdY3K5gwQ8xgUPY
The head of the Polish National Security Bureau, said in a post on social media X late on Tuesday that Poland would send military advisers to its NATO ally Finland, in response to "an official request for allied support in the face of a hybrid attack on the Finnish border". Russia said that any concentration of Polish troops on their border with Finland would be viewed as a threat. Finland's Border Guard and the interior ministry both said they were unaware of any plan to bring Polish military advisers to Finland's eastern border…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-reported-polish-plan-send-troops-finnish-border-says-it-will-stoke-2023-11-29/
Around October 7-8, a Chinese ship drug a 6,000 kg anchor for over 180 km, damaging a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia, and also damaging two telecom cables between Finland, Sweden and Estonia. The container ship Newnew Polar Bear is returning to China and both Finland and Estonia have asked China if they could send representatives to investigate the returning ship. No one has admitted responsibility…https://www.politico.eu/article/balticconnector-damage-likely-to-be-intentional-finnish-minister-says-china-estonia/#:~:text=An%20investigation%20by%20Finnish%20authorities,the%20cables%20and%20gas%20lines.
For decades the relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been characterized by historical territorial disputes, bitter fighting and little desire to negotiate peaceful resolutions for any of those disputes. Armenia had the military advantage early in the conflict but Azerbaijan’s oil and gas revenues helped it create a superior military that allowed it to take total control of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region with little opposition. With its dominance, it seemed poised to insist on a corridor through Armenian territory to connect with Azerbaijani territory on the other side of Armenia. (A map is within the article). Russia’s failed promises of protection resulted in a Russian-Armenian relationship at an all-time low. And western accusations of Azerbainjani genocide created frosty relations between them.
Against this backdrop, both Armenia and Azerbaijan called for international backing to build “mutual trust” and “positively impact the entire South Caucasus region.” It is a surprising development backed by trust-building gestures. Two Azerbaijani prisoners will be exchanged for 32 Armenian prisoners. Both nations were bidding to host the next UN Climate Change Conference (COP29). Armenia not only withdrew its bid, it is encouraging other nations to back Azerbaijan’s bid.
The US helped facilitate the negotiations. Russia has offered its services in future negotiations but both Armenia and Azerbaijan seemed inclined to use EU and US services. Azerbaijan was recently favored by Russia as Armenia let its disappointment with Russia be known. While Azerbaijan may or may not have been open to Russia as a facilitator, Armenia decidedly was not. Azerbaijan also has gas and oil deposits that are being bought by the EU as a partial replacement for Russian oil and gas. Another unknown factor is what role, if any, Russian troops stationed in both countries will play…https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/08/armenia-azerbaijan-breakthrough-signals-end-of-russias-south-caucasus-influence/?fbclid=IwAR1w5uYVBK1xkWyI0_Z9AHOyufbQSX6bCsG2ArUa8clGrqUsvRs48afeySk
The International Olympic Committee decided as a matter of human rights that Russian and Belarussian athletes can compete in the Olympics as neutral athletes without a flag. Ukraine said it would drop its threat to boycott under those terms. Teams with Russian or Belarussian passports will not compete. The individual athletes cannot express support for the invasion and cannot have a contract with military or security services…https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/67663582
Miscellaneous
A Russian woman in Belgium displays her support for the invasion of Ukraine…https://twitter.com/victoriaslog/status/1732160045880623367
Zelensky takes a morning stroll in the neighborhood…https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1732342212862636038
Whatever the rodent problem in a trench might have been, it’s worse in the winter when they seek both heat and food. Cats aren’t the only animal deployed against them…https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1731012757355438222
A Russian tries to communicate with a Ukrainian drone operator…https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732862260760940716
Just some people in Lviv who want to live their lives…https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1732307299731939807
The tracked drone seems to be used by the russians not urainians, as the two soldiers helping the wounded one, wear the russian flag and the USSR flag on their uniforms. The text at the end is also written in russian, not ukrainian language
Any thoughts on the oft repeated claim that Russia is saving their missiles for a major winter attack on Ukraine infrastructure?
It has been winter for a while now but no major strike?
Could it be that Russia is running short of missile launch platforms.
The Black Sea is under Ukraine blockade, I read somewhere that Sevastopol is the only port capable of loading missiles onto missile carriers - I have no idea if that is true.
I also read somewhere that Russia is storing these missiles in Crimea which would align with the Sevastopol claim.
Probably their jet bomber fleet is in need of serious renovation.