The tracked drone seems to be used by the russians not urainians, as the two soldiers helping the wounded one, wear the russian flag and the USSR flag on their uniforms. The text at the end is also written in russian, not ukrainian language
Any thoughts on the oft repeated claim that Russia is saving their missiles for a major winter attack on Ukraine infrastructure?
It has been winter for a while now but no major strike?
Could it be that Russia is running short of missile launch platforms.
The Black Sea is under Ukraine blockade, I read somewhere that Sevastopol is the only port capable of loading missiles onto missile carriers - I have no idea if that is true.
I also read somewhere that Russia is storing these missiles in Crimea which would align with the Sevastopol claim.
Probably their jet bomber fleet is in need of serious renovation.
The widespread belief is that they're still stocking up because their production is steady and they haven't been using them. Last year they started firing them off in October. The delay suggests that they might want to launch more missiles for a longer period of time to increase the stress on Ukraine's air defense and electrical grid.
The Kalibr cruise missile can be launched by air, sea and land. There have been several reports that the missile can only be loaded onto ships at Sevastopol. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24097
Without naval launches, there are still the air and land launches but the Black Sea would have been another vector of approach that would have stressed Ukrainian air defenses.
All the Russian planes have undergone wear and tear and some have exceeded their planned lifespan. The plane crashes you've heard of inside Russia, such as near Rostove and Vladivostok, were a results of worn out equipment.
From your comments it might be the land based version is the biggest threat?
Do you have a good source for info on these?
I searched but did not find much. I did find the land version is physically different from the others, different boosters and such. Would be a pity for them if Russia is only building air and naval versions.
I also could not what the ground version is fired with.
The missiles I've heard about have been air- and sea-based launches. I would classify them as the biggest threats. Unless they find a work-around for loading and launching the naval missile, that leaves air delivery unless something changes.
"The other problem with the Russian massed missile strike, of course, is do they have enough launchers?
The Ukrainians have burned Russian bombers on airstrips 700 km. Inside Russia, they’ve chased the ships capable of launching missiles out of the central and west Black Sea and were those platforms to sail out of the east end, the Ukrainians have land- and air-launched anti-ship missiles and Russian propaganda really doesn’t need another Moskva sinking bouncing around the internet.
There is also the not insignificant issue of Russian bomber maintenance and the question of how capable Russian air force mechanics are of keeping a large number of bombers flight-capable long term."
************************************************
I only mentioned ground launched because you introduced the idea in your previous post.
I know nothing about ground launched so am happy to drop this.
You wrote: The Kalibr cruise missile can be launched by air, sea and land.
What is your assessment about the situation in Bakhmut? It seems that if the assaults around Chromove and Ivanivske succeed, ZSU might be forced to abandon both Klishtivka and Andriivka, I.e all of their gains in the limited counteroffensive south of Bakhmut will be reversed
The 3rd Assault Brigade has been off the line for about a month and that's when the Ukrainian advance stopped and the Russian assaults became more generalized and slowly started making progress. By slow, I mean averaging 1-200 m a week. I haven't heard a lot about the intensity of the attacks or the amount of casualties but it sounds like this will be another ongoing Russian effort about the same level of intensity as Kupiansk.
Unlike Kupiansk, though, they are showing hints of progress, so that is likely to encourage them to put even more effort into the attacks. In the past, before Bakhmut fell, Russia would attack for 1-2 months, gain 1-3 km, and then Ukraine would counterattack and take it all back in three days. If that doesn't happen, then Ukraine may slowly just give up ground until it hits a point where it decides the ground is worth fighting over. For me, it's too early to tell what kind of pattern the two sides will fall into at Bakhmut. Russia will take any land it can get, but land, by itself, isn't important unless it can give you an advantage in battle. I expect Ukraine will put up a strong defense for land that gives it an advantage.
The tracked drone seems to be used by the russians not urainians, as the two soldiers helping the wounded one, wear the russian flag and the USSR flag on their uniforms. The text at the end is also written in russian, not ukrainian language
Any thoughts on the oft repeated claim that Russia is saving their missiles for a major winter attack on Ukraine infrastructure?
It has been winter for a while now but no major strike?
Could it be that Russia is running short of missile launch platforms.
The Black Sea is under Ukraine blockade, I read somewhere that Sevastopol is the only port capable of loading missiles onto missile carriers - I have no idea if that is true.
I also read somewhere that Russia is storing these missiles in Crimea which would align with the Sevastopol claim.
Probably their jet bomber fleet is in need of serious renovation.
The widespread belief is that they're still stocking up because their production is steady and they haven't been using them. Last year they started firing them off in October. The delay suggests that they might want to launch more missiles for a longer period of time to increase the stress on Ukraine's air defense and electrical grid.
The Kalibr cruise missile can be launched by air, sea and land. There have been several reports that the missile can only be loaded onto ships at Sevastopol. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24097
Without naval launches, there are still the air and land launches but the Black Sea would have been another vector of approach that would have stressed Ukrainian air defenses.
All the Russian planes have undergone wear and tear and some have exceeded their planned lifespan. The plane crashes you've heard of inside Russia, such as near Rostove and Vladivostok, were a results of worn out equipment.
Thanks for your reply.
From your comments it might be the land based version is the biggest threat?
Do you have a good source for info on these?
I searched but did not find much. I did find the land version is physically different from the others, different boosters and such. Would be a pity for them if Russia is only building air and naval versions.
I also could not what the ground version is fired with.
The missiles I've heard about have been air- and sea-based launches. I would classify them as the biggest threats. Unless they find a work-around for loading and launching the naval missile, that leaves air delivery unless something changes.
https://www.militarytoday.com/missiles/club_m.htm
Here's an August article on estimated numbers and production.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21001
The Russians are delaying for a reason. It could be something beyond just stockpiling the missiles but I don't have any guesses on what that might be.
Ukraine's mainstream media catching up with my forward thinking.
https://www.facebook.com/?filter=all&sk=h_chr
"The other problem with the Russian massed missile strike, of course, is do they have enough launchers?
The Ukrainians have burned Russian bombers on airstrips 700 km. Inside Russia, they’ve chased the ships capable of launching missiles out of the central and west Black Sea and were those platforms to sail out of the east end, the Ukrainians have land- and air-launched anti-ship missiles and Russian propaganda really doesn’t need another Moskva sinking bouncing around the internet.
There is also the not insignificant issue of Russian bomber maintenance and the question of how capable Russian air force mechanics are of keeping a large number of bombers flight-capable long term."
************************************************
I only mentioned ground launched because you introduced the idea in your previous post.
I know nothing about ground launched so am happy to drop this.
You wrote: The Kalibr cruise missile can be launched by air, sea and land.
Thanks Don!
What is your assessment about the situation in Bakhmut? It seems that if the assaults around Chromove and Ivanivske succeed, ZSU might be forced to abandon both Klishtivka and Andriivka, I.e all of their gains in the limited counteroffensive south of Bakhmut will be reversed
The 3rd Assault Brigade has been off the line for about a month and that's when the Ukrainian advance stopped and the Russian assaults became more generalized and slowly started making progress. By slow, I mean averaging 1-200 m a week. I haven't heard a lot about the intensity of the attacks or the amount of casualties but it sounds like this will be another ongoing Russian effort about the same level of intensity as Kupiansk.
Unlike Kupiansk, though, they are showing hints of progress, so that is likely to encourage them to put even more effort into the attacks. In the past, before Bakhmut fell, Russia would attack for 1-2 months, gain 1-3 km, and then Ukraine would counterattack and take it all back in three days. If that doesn't happen, then Ukraine may slowly just give up ground until it hits a point where it decides the ground is worth fighting over. For me, it's too early to tell what kind of pattern the two sides will fall into at Bakhmut. Russia will take any land it can get, but land, by itself, isn't important unless it can give you an advantage in battle. I expect Ukraine will put up a strong defense for land that gives it an advantage.