Alexander Kovalenko notes 1391 Shahed-type drone strikes fr the first week of July and that was not a record. So over 5000 a month and growing. Quite a lot….
Yes, this follows the pattern of the previous two times (February and May) the Defense Department temporarily stopped the flow of weapons without consultation.
I don't have specific launch numbers but they plan to produce 30,000 long-range drones this year. If they meet that goal and launch that many it would average 82 drone a day. Since they are ramping up it is probably less than that now and would be more than that in December.
Russia is producing 70 Gerans a day, over half of them decoys, and that number is also rising. (It was about 61 per day from February to April 2025).
They also produce the Garpiya drone. The only numbers published for that drone are 500 that were produced in the second half of 2023 and 2,000 that were produced in the first half of 2024, which averages to 11 per day. The number of Garpiya drones made per day will be higher than that now. Since Russia launched 2,736 drones in June, it suggests they are producing about 90 drones a day of all types.
Russia had been launching long-range drones from five sites but will soon have 15 launch sites.
Alexander Kovalenko notes 1391 Shahed-type drone strikes fr the first week of July and that was not a record. So over 5000 a month and growing. Quite a lot….
Thank you both, once again. An impressive, detailed and essential analysis, if harrowing!
https://substack.com/@reeceashdown/note/c-133152871?r=5qrbeg&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Yes, this follows the pattern of the previous two times (February and May) the Defense Department temporarily stopped the flow of weapons without consultation.
Well, is as allways a impresive dossier.
Not the best news, but this is the reality.
I only make maps of places where territory changed hands. There were a lot of sectors where I didn't make maps.
Thanks Don! Do you have an idea how many long distance drones Ukraine sends into Russia each night on average and max amount?
I don't have specific launch numbers but they plan to produce 30,000 long-range drones this year. If they meet that goal and launch that many it would average 82 drone a day. Since they are ramping up it is probably less than that now and would be more than that in December.
Russia is producing 70 Gerans a day, over half of them decoys, and that number is also rising. (It was about 61 per day from February to April 2025).
They also produce the Garpiya drone. The only numbers published for that drone are 500 that were produced in the second half of 2023 and 2,000 that were produced in the first half of 2024, which averages to 11 per day. The number of Garpiya drones made per day will be higher than that now. Since Russia launched 2,736 drones in June, it suggests they are producing about 90 drones a day of all types.
Russia had been launching long-range drones from five sites but will soon have 15 launch sites.
Thanks. Hmm on so many days Russia has launched more than 200 drones so your numbers seem a bit low. Ukraine is still far behind unfortunately.
The 2,736 number came from a July 8 ISW post which they pulled from Frontelligence Insight (Tartarigami).
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-8-2025#:~:text=Ukraine%2Dbased%20open%2Dsource%20intelligence,Russia's%20increasing%20domestic%20drone%20production.
I just found this July article which says 5,438 drones were launched in June based off of government data.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/07/01/russia-launched-record-5337-drones-at-ukraine-in-june-alone
I've no idea why the huge discrepancy, but that averages 181 drones being produced each day.
This is a June article talking about producing 70 Gerans a day.
https://kyivindependent.com/exclusive-ukraine-could-face-500-russian-drones-a-night-as-kremlin-builds-new-launch-sites/
The Garpiya numbers were from October 2024 with no update found since.
And then this June article quotes and ISW analyst that says Russia produces 2,700 Shaheds and 2,500 decoys a month.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/15/europe/russia-tactics-swarms-of-killer-drones-intl-cmd