Thank you so very much. So many details. —- But Russia is still creeping forwards. Do you think it could be that at some point they turn to defence instead of attacks ? Would that make a difference for Ukraine ? Warmest wishes.
It's about Russia's rate of attrition and where they are being killed. Russia has been averaging about 1000 casualties a day for a long time. In earlier months, that was accompanied what greater advances forward. Ukaine has become more efficient at killing Russians that move towards the gray zone and advance into the gray zone, so Russia doesn't gain as much ground for the same casualties.
There is some terrain, such as rivers, fields and a narrow stretch of prepared defenses, where the terrain is especially dangerous for Russia, so they suffer casualties with no movement forward. The other variable is how many troops Russia sends. At places like Kostiantynivka they sense blood in the water so they send more people and gain more ground. Slowly, and with a lot of casualties.
Based on the past, Russia won't stop attacking unless they start to run out of people. At that point they will probably stop attacking in some places and continue attacking in other places. When they can no longer attack at all, it will be a new phase in the war and an indicator of how much Russia's capabilities have deteriorated.
Thanks Donald, a very interesting and detailed post
Excellent detail Don, a lot in this one, that has informed about 3 of my pending articles. Really appreciated 👍
Glad to help.
Thank you so very much. So many details. —- But Russia is still creeping forwards. Do you think it could be that at some point they turn to defence instead of attacks ? Would that make a difference for Ukraine ? Warmest wishes.
It's about Russia's rate of attrition and where they are being killed. Russia has been averaging about 1000 casualties a day for a long time. In earlier months, that was accompanied what greater advances forward. Ukaine has become more efficient at killing Russians that move towards the gray zone and advance into the gray zone, so Russia doesn't gain as much ground for the same casualties.
There is some terrain, such as rivers, fields and a narrow stretch of prepared defenses, where the terrain is especially dangerous for Russia, so they suffer casualties with no movement forward. The other variable is how many troops Russia sends. At places like Kostiantynivka they sense blood in the water so they send more people and gain more ground. Slowly, and with a lot of casualties.
Based on the past, Russia won't stop attacking unless they start to run out of people. At that point they will probably stop attacking in some places and continue attacking in other places. When they can no longer attack at all, it will be a new phase in the war and an indicator of how much Russia's capabilities have deteriorated.