Thanks Don (&Tom)! How do you see the current drone (and probable few missiles) air campaign on dual-use facilities in Russia? Before it was easy: if you hit an oil tank, it burns - photos all over SNS; long term results more difficult to judge. How about now? Are the strikes successful in least in the sense to keep some Russian facilities under pressure?
Every little bit helps. Russian industry is very large and dispersed and some of the drones only start a 400 square meter fire, some more. It does add up over time and the attacks are increasing in number. It does add pressure but an attack rarely destroys the target. There have been many large targets that have been attacked several times and they keep producing, though usually with delays and somewhat diminished capacity.
Thanks. And is the scale of the attacks increasing? It is quite evident that the Russians are attacking with more and more drones (talking about the “Shaheds” not FPVs) each month and that the sophistication of both the drones and the operations is increasing? Do you see similar improvements in the Ukrainian drone attacks? I remember before they were announcing all kinds of long-range, jet engine based, missile-hybrid drones but it seems to me that they are still stuck with their old Lyutii types and that light aircraft converted to a long-range drone.
Both sides are improving their technologies and increasing their rate of production. It's much easier to produce simpler models, and that's what both sides have done. Russia produces 80-150 cruise missiles and 40-50 ballistic missiles a month. The Geran drone is much simpler and 2100 a month are made, and that number is increasing.
Last December, Ukraine said they expected to produce 30,000 long range drones and 3,000 missiles in 2025, which is 2,500 drones and 250 missiles a month. They have the capacity to produce much more but whether they reach those numbers depends on funding.
Thanks Don (&Tom)! How do you see the current drone (and probable few missiles) air campaign on dual-use facilities in Russia? Before it was easy: if you hit an oil tank, it burns - photos all over SNS; long term results more difficult to judge. How about now? Are the strikes successful in least in the sense to keep some Russian facilities under pressure?
Every little bit helps. Russian industry is very large and dispersed and some of the drones only start a 400 square meter fire, some more. It does add up over time and the attacks are increasing in number. It does add pressure but an attack rarely destroys the target. There have been many large targets that have been attacked several times and they keep producing, though usually with delays and somewhat diminished capacity.
It all adds up, but it's a slow process.
Thanks. And is the scale of the attacks increasing? It is quite evident that the Russians are attacking with more and more drones (talking about the “Shaheds” not FPVs) each month and that the sophistication of both the drones and the operations is increasing? Do you see similar improvements in the Ukrainian drone attacks? I remember before they were announcing all kinds of long-range, jet engine based, missile-hybrid drones but it seems to me that they are still stuck with their old Lyutii types and that light aircraft converted to a long-range drone.
Both sides are improving their technologies and increasing their rate of production. It's much easier to produce simpler models, and that's what both sides have done. Russia produces 80-150 cruise missiles and 40-50 ballistic missiles a month. The Geran drone is much simpler and 2100 a month are made, and that number is increasing.
Last December, Ukraine said they expected to produce 30,000 long range drones and 3,000 missiles in 2025, which is 2,500 drones and 250 missiles a month. They have the capacity to produce much more but whether they reach those numbers depends on funding.
Thanks!